The data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions polls from 2019–2023 suggest that the global stock markets might crash in 2023, as the majority of the respondents from all around the world said that the likelihood of a worldwide stock market meltdown in 2023 was higher than it was lower.
Expert projections for the coming year have ranged from extreme optimism to overt worry, particularly when it comes to assessing the state of the global economy.
In place of professional forecasts, this chart directly examines citizen forecasts from a wide range of countries.
The percentage of typical citizens who believe that the world stock markets would crash in the future year is plotted using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions polls from 2019–2023.
Methodology
Over 24,000 adults from 36 countries participated in the annual reports that were utilised to create the charts. At least 500 people were sampled in each of the countries displayed, with about 1,000 people sampled in the G7 nations and other significant economies like China, Brazil, and South Korea.
Respondents were specifically asked to rate the likelihood that “major stock markets around the world will crash” in the upcoming year using the words “likely” or “unlikely.”
At the conclusion of the relevant prior year, responses were gathered. For instance, survey information for 2023 was gathered in October and November of 2022. Uncertainty-based responses and non-answers weren’t represented in the graph above.
Additionally, all data from each country were weighted to correctly reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.
Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country
The majority of the respondents from all around the world said that the likelihood of a worldwide stock market meltdown in 2023 was higher than it was lower.
| Market Crash Predictions by Country | Likely (2023) | Unlikely (2023) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 48% | 28% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 57% | 25% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 49% | 27% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 44% | 40% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 45% | 32% |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 59% | 29% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 40% | 50% |
| 🇫🇷 France | 42% | 35% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 43% | 30% |
| 🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom) | 47% | 30% |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 33% | 47% |
| 🇮🇳 India | 59% | 27% |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 35% | 42% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 42% | 35% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 40% | 26% |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 71% | 15% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 50% | 29% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 44% | 31% |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | 56% | 30% |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | 66% | 19% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 51% | 29% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 63% | 23% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 52% | 37% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 49% | 31% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 50% | 33% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 47% | 38% |
| 🇺🇸 United States | 47% | 31% |
| 🌎 Global Average | 50% | 31% |
People believed that the collapse of the world stock markets in 2023 was more likely than not in 24 of the 27 nations that were sampled. This applies to the whole G7, with 40–47% of each member country’s residents choosing “likely” and 23%–35% choosing “unlikely.”
More than 60% of respondents in Malaysia, Poland, and South Africa gave the most negative comments, believing that a market meltdown in 2023 was possible. 71% of Malaysians said a crash in 2023 was likely, leading all other countries.
China, Israel, and Hungary were the only three nations whose inhabitants thought a stock market meltdown in 2023 was less likely. China had the largest percentage of respondents who said they were “unlikely,” at 50%, while in Hungary, only 33% said they were “likely,” while 47% said they were “unlikely.”
Changing Stock Market Sentiments
We can observe that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries when we compare replies from 2023 to those from 2019:
| Change in Market Crash Predictions | % Likely Change (2019-2023) | % Unlikely Change (2019-2023) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | +20 pp | -18 pp |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | +15 pp | -15 pp |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | +09 pp | -12 pp |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | +11 pp | -11 pp |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | +12 pp | -13 pp |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | +32 pp | -23 pp |
| 🇨🇳 China | +12 pp | -09 pp |
| 🇫🇷 France | +06 pp | -05 pp |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | +10 pp | -07 pp |
| 🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom) | 0 pp | -02 pp |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | +09 pp | -08 pp |
| 🇮🇳 India | +26 pp | -24 pp |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | +03 pp | 0 pp |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | +11 pp | -08 pp |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | -04 pp | -06 pp |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | +07 pp | -09 pp |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | +20 pp | -21 pp |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | +03 pp | -09 pp |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | +30 pp | -23 pp |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | +21 pp | -18 pp |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | +03 pp | -11 pp |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | +28 pp | -26 pp |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | +26 pp | -26 pp |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | +18 pp | -05 pp |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | +04 pp | -02 pp |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | +05 pp | -06 pp |
| 🇺🇸 United States | +09 pp | -15 pp |
| 🌎 Global Average | +13 pp | -13 pp |
25 out of the 27 countries responded to the predicted crash in global stock markets, with 8 of those countries seeing increases of more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, the largest rises, at 32 and 30 percentage points, respectively, were in Chile and Peru, neighbours.
However, local opinions did not reflect the whole public. For instance, Japan was the only nation that replied with a decreased likelihood by 4 pp, despite South Korea having one of the largest increases in “likely” responses to stock markets collapsing at 26 pp.
While there is a general decline in optimism, it is also evident that predictions from the previous year weren’t always accurate.
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