According to a study by car and van leasing business Vanarama, Teslas will be more intelligent than humans by 2033, with the current D1 microprocessor capable of managing 362 trillion operations per second.
By 2033, Tesla’s new microchip—whose processing power is already 36% that of the human brain—will be “more intelligent” than humans.
According to a study by car and van leasing business Vanarama, the D1 microprocessor can manage 362 trillion operations per second, whereas a human brain can process one quadrillion operations per second (that’s one followed by 15 zeros).
The company’s forecast was based on an analysis of previous and current Tesla microchips, which revealed that their potential is growing at an astounding pace of 486% every year.
The new D1 processor, which is a component of Elon Musk’s Dojo supercomputer platform, will be made available this year. According to Vanarama, it will play a crucial role in the company’s evolving Autopilot self-driving system.
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The D1 chip will have finished 7.6 quadrillion operations in the time it took you to read the graphic above.
About 100 billion neurons make up a human brain, which triples in size during a baby’s first year and develops fully by the age of 25.
Although there are many different predictions as to when this will happen, researchers have long predicted that AI will eventually surpass human intelligence.
“It wouldn’t be crazy to believe that tech will become significantly smarter than humans in our lifetime,” Vanaram says. “Microchips are currently capable of working the way brain synapses do, with researchers developing chips that are inspired by the way the brain operates.”
In 2019, the Hardware 3 chip’s performance was 144 trillion operations per second. The Hardware 2 could perform 72 trillion operations before that. The Nvidia chip that was in use just six years ago is completely outperformed by the D1 semiconductor in terms of power.
With such growth rate, according to Vanarama, it would take Tesla just 17 years from the time it began developing to reach the level of a fully developed human brain.
This report comes as Elon Musk continues to tout the benefits of electric vehicles, writing on Twitter on Monday that it “Won’t be long before we view gasoline cars the same way we view steam engines today. The residual value of gasoline cars bought today will be much lower than people think.”
“These chips have been instrumental in Tesla’s existing automated driving functions, but there is so much more potential over the next decade,” Vanarama says.
“Does this mean that it will be 11 years until we see self-driving cars on the roads, or will it happen much sooner? Only time and innovation will tell.”