When COVID-19 vaccines were being produced, the UK government employed an over-purchasing approach to ensure sufficient supply even if one or more of them failed to work. However, there is no evidence to suggest that anyone should get COVID vaccines, according to a UK mathematician.
A British mathematician has stated that there is no longer any evidence to support the recommendation that anyone receive the COVID-19 vaccine as the UK government launches yet another booster campaign in advance of the winter season.
The vaccines could perhaps benefit those at danger of severe illnesses and death from COVID-19, according to Norman Fenton, professor of risk and information management at Queen Mary University of London and director of risk assessment software firm Agena, although he no longer sees “any evidence at all that anybody should get vaccinated” in light of more recent statistics.
Fenton is a member of the UK academics’ Health Advisory and Recovery Team (HART), which criticizes the government’s handling of the pandemic.
Dr. Clare Craig, a diagnostic pathologist and HART group member, urged the government to “get realistic,” adding that individuals cannot be expected to be injected “at great expense every six months,” and that “pushing another vaccination campaign will just ramp up fear again.”
The coronavirus’ spike protein, which attaches to host cell receptors, fuses the virus envelope with the cell membrane, and initiates an infection, has undergone numerous mutations.
Vaccinating people against previous versions of the spike protein, according to Craig, is “forcing our immune system to go down one particular strategy” at a time when the virus is “evolving away from having that appearance.” She also stated that the spike protein, which is included in the COVID-19 vaccinations, is the virus’s “most damaging” component.
‘No Evidence’ COVID-19 Vaccines Reduced Mortality
The UK’s fall booster program’s main objective, according to the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization, is to improve immunity in people who are more likely to be hospitalized or die from COVID-19 in winter.
The government advisory body claimed that the suggested mRNA vaccines provide “good protection against severe disease” from coronavirus variants but “lower and relatively short-lived” defense against infection and mild disease. This suggests that the vaccines will decrease the number of deaths from COVID-19.
Craig and Fenton argued, however, that the immunizations had not proven to be effective in saving people’s lives.
Following the introduction of the vaccines, Craig claimed that there had been no change in the trend of global accumulative COVID-19 fatalities, but Fenton contended that UK all-cause mortality data provide “no evidence at all” that the unvaccinated were dying more frequently than the vaccinated.
She claimed that before the introduction of the Omicron variant, Craig had been persuaded by a number of papers that there was some proof the COVID-19 vaccines were preventing fatalities and life-threatening illnesses, but the impact was “really hard to see” when examining the cumulative amount of real-world data.
“When you look back at the whole picture, and compare the trajectory of COVID deaths globally, before and after the vaccines, there is no change. When you compare the case fatality rate before and after vaccines, there is no change. … That big differential happened not with the vaccine rollout, it happened with Omicron,” she said.
Fenton has consistently maintained that the all-cause mortality rate is the best approach to evaluate the risk-benefit ratio of therapies for lethal diseases, and he has contested summary COVID-19 figures issued by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), claiming that they are based on inaccurate data.
According to the most recent ONS statistics on age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), the all-cause ASMR per 100,000 person-years in England between January 1, 2021 and May 31, 2022 was 2337.5 for the unvaccinated population and 957.4 for those who received a minimum of one dose of a COVID-19 vaccination.
When the figures are split down by COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 fatalities, the COVID-19 ASMR was 863.2 for the unvaccinated and 64.5 for the ever-vaccinated, while the non-COVID-19 ASMR was 1474.3 among the unvaccinated, approximately 65 percent greater than the rate among the ever-vaccinated (892.9).
The last pair of numbers “can’t be right,” Fenton argued, “because that would mean … somehow the vaccines are not just stopping COVID deaths, but they’re stopping non-COVID deaths amongst the vaccinated.”
The numbers “can not be right,” Fenton added, because “the mortality rate for non-COVID deaths amongst the vaccinated, according to their data, is also much lower than the non-COVID mortality historical rates,” and the anomalies could be credited to “misclassifying [and] miscounting” the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.
Pre-pandemic ONS statistics for England and Wales show that the ASMR varied between 953 and 993 between 2011 and 2019, whereas the data between 1942 and 2018 varied between 1,017.7 and 2,509.8.
Non-COVID-19 ASMRs were also substantially lower between Jan. 1, 2021, and May 31, 2022, for groups of people who had had their most recent vaccination doses fewer than 21 days before, at 647.5 after the first dose, 513.3 after the second dose, and 567.1 after the third or booster dose.
Analyzing a similar pattern in an older iteration of the data set, Fenton, Craig, as well as other authors stated in a non-peer-reviewed preprint paper (read below) released in March that the numbers of COVID-19-related and non-COVID-19 deaths reported in the “within 21 days of first-dose” vaccination category were “implausibly low,” and that deaths occurring in the two weeks following first-vaccination appear to have been overlooked from the dataset, potentially due to factors such as miscategorisation, reporting lags, and errors in data handling or transcription.
Additionally, they claimed that the ONS’s “carefully selected large sample” of the population, which included people who participated in the 2011 census and were registered with a GP in 2019, was not representative of the entire population and that the ONS’s estimates of the death toll and the percentage of unvaccinated people were too low, which had an impact on the conclusions made regarding the risks and benefits of the vaccines.
They also stated in a different paper published in January that the non-COVID mortality rate for unvaccinated age groups 60 to 69, 70 to 79, and over-80 had hit its peak “at the same time during the year” in past years, including 2020, but each peaked in 2021 “at the same time as the vaccine rollout peaks for that age group.”
Vaccine Safety
In response to a question about the COVID-19 vaccines’ safety, Fenton said that while he does not believe that the vaccines are “killing a lot of people” as some would claim, he contends that “there are enough safety signals,” such as an increased rate of myocarditis and pericarditis in young males, that call into question the idea of administering the vaccines to healthy young people who are at extremely low risk of dying from COVID-19.
Fenton stated that the vaccinations may have avoided some COVID-19 fatalities among the elderly, but there is also “a little bit of evidence” that the vaccines might well have expedited some elderly deaths “by a few weeks.”
“Certainly what I will say is there is no evidence at all that the all-cause mortality of the unvaccinated is any higher than the all-cause mortality of vaccinated,” he said.
When asked about the UK’s Yellow Card Scheme—the system for reporting adverse reactions to medicines—Fenton called it “very poor,” saying it does not collect “any useful information” like the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), and that the number of suspected COVID-19-related deaths reported to VAERS in 18 months seems to be much higher than the amount of deaths suspected to be connected to all other vaccines combined in the previous 32 years.
Craig also stated that the “early warning” indicators had been “blaring red for some time,” alluding to adverse reaction alerting systems worldwide.
She claimed that deciphering the data is “quite tricky” and that it will take a lot of time to accurately gauge any potential vaccine-related issues.
Using shingles as an example, Craig said there is “fairly good circumstantial evidence” and some studies implying people are at high risk of shingles after being vaccinated, and there are also “biological reasons why that may be in terms of the immune system being given a knock at the time of vaccination,” but it is difficult to distinguish whether shingles actually became more common after the vaccines were introduced because pre-vaccination data may have been depleted “people were not attending their GPs at normal rates” during the lockdowns.
She also stated that it will take “a long time” to thoroughly assess the dangers, citing a 2020 study that indicated the risk of vaccine-attributable narcolepsy was “higher than previously estimated in England because of identification of vaccine-attributable cases with late diagnoses.”
“We have better big-data systems now in healthcare, which means that shouldn’t take as long, but … with the best will in the world and with everybody wanting to find out how bad something is, it still takes a long time,” she said, adding that “we don’t necessarily have that same motivation here for people to actually find out what’s going on.”
Craig: Vaccines Considered ‘The Only Solution’
Craig ascribed the apparent lack of desire on decision-makers and prominent individuals who believe “vaccines are the only solution to what they still believe is a very dangerous and deadly condition.”
As a result, the “vaccination juggernaut,” which was set off to aim at the vulnerable, “continued down that track, getting [the vaccines] into younger and younger arms more and more often,” she said.
Craig also said she believes there is “a bit of a sunk cost fallacy that they have bought so many doses of this drug. I think we’ve only used 20 percent of the stockpile that they bought.”
When COVID-19 vaccines were being produced, the UK government employed an over-purchasing approach to ensure sufficient supply even if one or more of them failed to work.
Craig said it’s “fine” to pursue the strategy, adding, “but having done that, that doesn’t mean you have to then shove them all into people’s arms.”
“We can’t enter a world where people are expected to be jabbed at great expense every six months,” she said, urging the government to “get realistic” and “admit they need to step back” at some time.
The UK Health Security Agency’s most recent weekly COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report was released on Thursday stated that “vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with the Omicron variant is substantially lower than against the Delta variant, with rapid waning. However, protection against hospitalisation remains high.”
In an email to the media, a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “We continue to do everything we can to protect the public.
“Our existing COVID vaccines have saved countless lives and continue to allow us to live with this virus without restrictions,” the statement reads.
“Vaccines remain our best defence against serious illness from COVID and eligible people should come forward for their autumn booster when invited.”
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