There is far more to the current multi-modal geopolitical war than just what’s happening in Ukraine. This conflict has led to a myriad of downstream effects and moves which are just as important as what the encirclement of Bakhmut means.
For years the wildcard in the BRICS Alliance has been India. India’s rivalry with China as well as its complicated relationships with both Russia and the West have always served as wedge issues to drive the alliance apart.
During the Trump years the “I” in BRICS, India, was slowly working its way under Prime Minister Narendra Modi back into the West’s orbit. It led to me thinking that that “I” had been replaced by Iran, especially pre-COVID-19.
Today with the ascendence of Lula to the presidency in Brazil, the BRICS have, for now, lost the “B” in their alliance. So, with all of the talk about the BRICS coming into their own as a global economic and political force the situation is far from settled because the West and Davos are simply not going to let this just happen without a fight.
The relationship between Russia and China is dominating the headlines with major US officials making significant threats to China, in particular, about supporting Russia. These threats are, of course, very real, coming from people like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
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At the same time, they are also not overtures to real negotiations. Making demands that only promise the abeyance of the stick with no carrot is not an opening offer, it’s a closing offer. So, while Yellen travels to Kiev to pledge Zelenskyy unlimited support of US taxpayer funds while the “Biden” administration dithers over how to deal with the situation in E. Palastine, Ohio, tells us where the priorities of our leadership is.
Winning the geopolitical war must take precedence over everything else, even if there is no real ‘country’ left after the war is over.
There is a saying by Sun Tsu making the rounds today in social media that is wholly appropriate here:
This describes the actions of Yellen, Blinken and their fellow travelers in Europe perfectly. Now, I know this is not news to anyone who’s read my work for the past few years. You know I view them as vandals, not incompetents, but it’s important to keep this in mind at every step in this march towards global conflict.
Because this is the way most of the BRICS nations and their growing list of sympathizers also view the situation. Russia has made this very clear. Vladimir Putin, his Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov, and former Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, have all expressed this.
The longer this conflict goes on the more adamant about these points they become. The same can be said for China and its leadership.
China says less than the Russians do, but does more with who they choose to talk to and when. Foreign Minister Wang Xi’s recent visits to Moscow and Tehran further cemented a triangular foundation of support. These visits were contemporaneous to the convocation of warmongers in Munich two weeks ago. That was not an accident.
Neither was Premier Xi’s visit to Riyadh and the major Arab summits where he made sincere overtures to welcome them into the forming pan-Asian economic sphere. Don’t think for a second these events don’t have knock-on effects and reverberate in national capitols all over the world.
We’ve seen a spate of major announcements further underscore just how far along the entire BRICS project, with or without Brazil, is.
This brings me back to India as the wildcard. Modi’s journey from a guy with one foot on two islands (East v. West) to planting his feet firmly with the East has been an interesting and vital one.
If we’ve learned nothing else over the past year of war in Ukraine it is that most of the world is unphased by threats by the US by the countries I’ve just discussed. Iran clearly doesn’t care. China understands that if Russia falls militarily, China is next. Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC+ understand who their future trade partners really are.
This is why India is now in the crosshairs of Davos. They are the last major power in the region left to stymie Asian integration.
Reports circulated the same weekend as the Munich Security Conference that none other than George Soros was behind the attacks on PM Modi through a report from Hindenberg Research. They targeted one of Modi’s big financial supporters, Guatam Adani William Engdahl covered this in detail.
But Engdahl doesn’t stop there. He very smartly ties this to George Soros’ speech at Munich, you know, the one he skipped this year’s WEF conference in Davos to give. Soros called out Modi directly saying his days were numbered and he’s no ‘democrat.’
Soros is beyond being coy about these things anymore. He’s telling you what he’s doing.
RT ran a similar story, much more focused on Soros and the Indian Foreign Minister’s response to him the same day as Engdahl’s article:
For another take on the same subject I recommend you read Andrew Korybko’s piece from the same day on this subject, digging up the building propaganda campaign against Modi starting with the NY Times, passing next through the BBC documentary and ending with Soros’ Munich speech.
The need to cleave India from the BRICS is now acute. The war in Ukraine is reaching the next phase as Russia forces what’s left of the Ukrainian army from Bakhmut clearing the way for Russia to establish logistical dominion in the center of the Donbass.
Because of this there is an even greater sense of urgency within Davos to upgrade not just Ukraine but also pick a new fight with China. The clock is ticking down on the old financial system. The end of LIBOR is nigh.
The bodies are piling up in the Fed’s war on leverage as high as the ones on the battlefield in the Donbass. Malign actors like Soros may still they have the ability to avoid these things but, in the end, they are fronting strength while privately they are freaking out.
Moreover, global opinion of the West’s potency as seen through the lens of Russian potency has shifted in a way that make the decisions of Asia’s leadership that much easier.
These results are themselves revelatory of the biases within the populations polled, especially in the heavily propagandized West. But those from both Turkey and India are eye-popping and confirm my long-held belief that once someone finally stood up to the US and Europe and survived it would radically change the psychology of the geopolitical game board.
One only need to look at how brazen Davos’ moves are, how heavily they are flooding the zone with headlines, emerging crises, and easily-debunked lies to see what’s really going on.
In light of that it should be noted just how ineffectual Davos’ moves against Modi and India have been. The recent regional elections in three important Indian provinces left the clear impression that Modi’s influence over electoral politics is still very much intact.
Modi has made it a point to engage the northeastern provinces, normally ignored by Indian politics, to entrench his hold on power in India. This is clearly his counter-move to anything the West would attempt to throw at him.
I’m no expert on Indian politics, but from the commentary I’ve seen, this opens up the possibility of Modi gaining a super-majority in next year’s elections. Regardless of whether that is true or not, what we know now is that the next year will be a minefield as Davos throws its weight around to topple another government it does not control.
The question I leave you with is will this be another Hungary, where polls had Viktor Orban in a tight race with Davos’ Anyone-But-Orban coalition only to see Orban cruise to his biggest victory ever, or will it Brazil, where the campaign against Bolsonaro was just strong enough to remove him from power.
Game on, George.
Tom Luongo is a former research chemist and financial/political commentator specializing in the intersection of geopolitics, financial markets, gold and cryptocurrencies. This article was originally published on Gold Goats ‘n Guns.