One of the most fundamental aspects of betting is not how much you have placed or on what you place the bet, these are secondary to your success in this activity, it is more so the value that’s key. To an inexperienced punter, this idea may be foreign. Some of the best gamblers and famously successful poker players in the world, such as Daniel Negreanu, have learnt how to do this seamlessly. Let us explain.
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The task at hand should be initiated to develop a knack for the betting value and have confidence in it. It may not be an easy thing to develop, but you’ll get it over time. The good news is, there are a few things you can do to gain an intuitive sense of value in betting, and we have all the information for you right here. But first, let’s cover the basics.
What Value Bets Are and How to Calculate them
The first aspect is understanding what they are. There is a difference between the chances of a team winning versus the teams’ chances of winning in relation to the betting odds offered on the table. When you continue to find value bets your rate of success goes up. Patiently finding and betting on value bets along with a stringent and disciplined plan that makes the most out of it, is where the fun lies, regardless of how unlikely the outcome may initially seem.
Shrewd and experienced bettors have often placed bets on teams that have not won, and believe it or not, they intended to. When you place bets on any team or sport, you should be thinking long-term.
The majority of experienced punters may see this as common sense, but if you’re a beginner at the game, trying to understand the strategy may be complicated for you. When placing your hard-earned money, however, it is what will save you from losing it all. It is not about being comfortable with your best but rather being consistent at backing them up.
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Calculating Value Bets
The second point we need to make is in the calculation of value bets. When you are looking to place value bets on many of the available site providers, such as 10cric.com for example, you should first understand the concept and calculations involved with these types of bets.
A value bet to put it simply is a bet where the chances of a given outcome are greater than what the odds-on offer is. So, for example, if you toss a coin, there is a 50-50 chance it will land on either heads or tails. Similarly, when the booker offers odds of 2.10 for example, to land on tails, this is considered the value bet.
The calculation is as follows:
- Value = (Probability x Decimal Odds) – 1
- Value = 1.05 – 1
- If the value is greater than 0, then we have found a value bet
In this case, the Value = 0.05
If you take this example above, betting on the coin to land on tails at odds of 2.10 is a value bet. Although this example seems simple enough, when it comes to the context of sports betting, it may be slightly different, and dare we say trickier. Knowing the precise probability for a given outcome can be different. One can simply place a best estimate or “guesstimate” on who may or may not win in any of the upcoming Indian Premier League (IPL) or Football Premier League matches. This is usually done by a successful betting expert and will find value bets based on given outcomes of previous matches and other statistics.
How To Find The Better Value Odds
There are a few things you can take into consideration when finding and placing these types of bets. Some useful advice has been included for you below:
- First and foremost, always bet on what you know, don’t try anything new unless you are 100% sure about it
- Secondly, consider multiple factors such as previous matches, players skills and previous betting and winning numbers
- Assess the probability of the numbers (as mentioned above) before you look towards the odds. So, convert the numbers into a percentage, much like the concept of “implied probability” does. This type of probability considers the bookmaker’s margin parallel to the established outcome.
- Don’t ignore the favourites. Just because everyone is betting on their favourite team doesn’t mean you can’t do that too, perhaps there is some wisdom to that.
- Shop around for some of the best odds available and then decide on the one that fits your situation.
On the basic level, this concept of value betting in sports is completely simple, however, do not ever underestimate it. Consistently finding the positive numbers is a challenge at first but with practice and the right calculations it can be done and before you know it you will be able to do it with your eyes closed.
Improving your ability takes effort and putting in the time, every day consistently. How do you think some of the best players in the world got to where they are? By endlessly focusing and playing their games as best as they can. It may or may not guarantee success but there is a strong possibility of winning the majority of the time, and the likelihood of that happening will only take place with the increase in value bets you place on games.
To sum up what has been stated so far; If the bookmaker or exchange “implied probability” is less than your own “assessed probability”, then that outcome represents a value betting opportunity. Identifying the betting value, yourself in your way is the best recommendation for any beginner. Once you get the hang of it you can use it to bet on almost every kind of sporting activity from cricket to football and even basketball.