Wide disparities in excess mortality estimates show not only how challenging the calculations are, but also how far we still have to go in accurately tracking deaths. We will never know how many people died of COVID.
Too many fatalities worldwide continue to go unreported, therefore we will never be able to determine the precise number of individuals the COVID-19 pandemic has claimed. However, statistical models predict that COVID-19 will surpass coronary heart disease as the main cause of mortality globally in 2021. This conclusion is drawn from estimations of excess mortality, or fatalities that exceed expected levels, rather than from official COVID-19 figures.
Following the release of their initial numbers earlier this year (read below), World Health Organization (WHO)-affiliated researchers this week publish further information on their calculations of excess mortality during the pandemic in Nature1. According to the statistics, excess mortality during 2020 and 2021 was...
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