The international environment around the 2024 elections will be contentious and unstable, with 40 countries going for elections next year, including the USA, EU, and India.
Elections in 2024 will impact about 2 billion people, or a quarter of the world’s population, including those in the US, EU, UK, Taiwan, India, and Russia. Some will have major consequences on the entire world, even if in many cases they won’t become fully apparent until 2025. The forthcoming elections and their possible broader ramifications are examined in this blog.
The international environment around the 2024 elections will be contentious and unstable. Russia will not stop invading Ukraine. The Middle East is seeing conflict once more. There will be a geopolitical stalemate between the US and China. Elections in Taiwan, Russia, and the Ukraine will make things hotter.
The most significant known political event of 2024 will be the US presidential election. Should Donald Trump win, major international unrest would result from his potential to roll back key Biden policies, like as the Inflation Reduction Act. As a result, American policy towards the Middle East and Russia would be less predictable, and Western unity would be undermined.
The appointment of a new EU Commission will occur after the election of the European Parliament. After 14 years in charge, the Conservatives in the UK are probably going to lose their majority. Economic difficulties will be a recurring topic, and electoral dynamics in one country will frequently have an impact on other countries. Concerns over electoral meddling and misinformation will be prevalent in the wake of these significant political events.
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Argentina’s top presidential contender, Javier Milei, known as an anarcho-capitalist, created turmoil in local financial markets and caused currency devaluation after his surprising victory in the Sunday primary.
Businesses will experience operational instability due to political unpredictability. It’s conceivable that protectionism will continue to be in style. Governments will find it harder to have coherent policies on topics like energy, tech regulation, and climate change during elections as they emphasize short-term electoral gains.
US Presidential Election – November 2024
Unless there’s a sickness, an accident, or the Grim Reaper strikes, Biden and Trump will most likely fight this. Trump will undoubtedly have spent a large portion of the campaign defending himself in court, even though it is unlikely that legal actions against him will have concluded before nominations are decided. There are still worries over Biden’s age and ability. Given Biden’s advantage among swing voters and independents, Democrats are optimistic about another Biden-Trump matchup; nevertheless, Trump has consistently exceeded expectations. Social concerns will be a major source of division in the election.
A second Trump administration would be unpredictable, while a second Biden government would offer continuity. In any case, his policy stances are still open to revision and are still mainly vague.
Protectionism and important industrial policies would be maintained by either candidate. Biden’s initiatives will likely be reversed by a Trump administration, including reducing the scope of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), cutting clean energy incentives, and lessening the emphasis on environmental, social, and governance issues. Trump is expected to undo Biden’s more assertive stance on competition, particularly in the tech industry. This may entail rolling back some executive order regulations from 2021 and loosening up laws governing international merger and acquisition approval.
Even if there will be a home focus, attention must be paid to the situation in Ukraine and the regional instability in the Middle East. Trump may reduce US assistance to Ukraine, which would lead to a resurgence of hostilities with the EU and NATO. Both parties support taking a firm stand on China; a Republican government could do more to reinforce this. It appears likely that international institutions and standards will continue to erode, particularly under Trump.
EU Elections – June/July 2024
There will be two phases to the EU 2024 political transition in June and July. On June 6–9, residents of the EU will elect new members of the European Parliament. Following this, EU member states will nominate important individuals, such as the next Commissioners and President of the European Commission.
According to recent polls, the European Parliament is becoming increasingly disorganized and erratic. It is anticipated that the national conservative right will make considerable gains, but the center-right EPP will continue to hold the largest party position. Extremists on the far left, and particularly the far right, have the potential to gain ground on the center.
On the broad policy agenda, we anticipate certain changes under the Commission’s new five-year mandate. Environmental and digital regulations will continue to be a top priority, but there will be pressure to moderate the rate of change, particularly in light of the need to balance economic competitiveness and the EU Green Deal. There will be pressure on the EU budget, which will impact defense, structural fund, and agriculture expenditure plans. Ukraine’s enlargement will present significant challenges. In reaction to competition from the US and China, political priorities such as economic security and strategic independence will continue to be paramount. The US election’s uncertainty will support this argument.
Taiwan Presidential Election – January 2024
The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan in three months may serve as a flashpoint given the strained relationship between China and Taiwan. Taiwanese elections are always centered around the China issue, with candidates endorsing pro-nationalist or mainland-leaning ideologies. Many voters will be thinking about home matters, but China will interpret the results as a sign of whether peaceful reunification is ever going to happen.
Lai Ching-te, the vice president of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and a vocal opponent of Beijing, is currently in the lead. But if opponents with a mainland slant can band together, they might be able to beat him. A DPP win would worsen relations with China, which would have an impact on companies that depend on cross-strait investment and trade, such as the tech industry. A significant increase in hostilities might have wider ramifications, like penalties for businesses thought to be over-indexed on one side. There would be ramifications for other campaigns, like the US presidential contest.
A win by the opposition might, in the short run, reduce tensions between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland by encouraging potential cross-Strait economic integration plans. However, it wouldn’t address Taiwan’s long-term problem.
UK General Election – probably Autumn 2024
The UK’s election campaign will mostly focus on domestic concerns, such as immigration, public services, and the economy, throughout the autumn (but it may also take place in the spring). There is a strong chance that Labour will form the next administration, according to current polling. Strong economic growth and productivity, stretched public budgets, and the need for investment and reform in public services await the victor.
The cornerstones of Labour’s opposition strategy, which were collaboration with the private sector to spur economic growth and fiscal restraint, would hold true. On several subjects, such as employment and trade union rights, we anticipate policy stability; nonetheless, Labour would make adjustments in these areas.
The UK would continue to approach China and Russia in the same way. Labor would like to improve ties with the EU, but they might not succeed if they aren’t willing to take a big stand on the single market or the customs union. In the event that Trump was to win reelection, there would be a greater argument for closer ties with the EU.
India General Election – April/May 2024
Since 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Narendra Modi, has dominated Indian politics and is well-liked, in part because of the country’s robust economic growth. Rahul Gandhi, the head of the coalition opposition and a poor campaigner, is anticipated to lose against Modi. However, there are five significant state elections scheduled for April of next year, which might provide additional impetus to the opposition or the BJP.
A third Modi government will keep pushing for more Indian influence abroad and giving priority to policies that benefit business. It will continue to portray itself as the leader of the developing world while remaining impartial on certain contentious matters, such as the conflict in Ukraine. India’s ties with the US will deepen, and the friction between China and India is expected to increase. However, Modi’s party’s sectarian policies and Hindu nationalism could make him even less popular abroad.
Russian Presidential Election – March 2024
Ironically, Russia’s presidential election is scheduled to take place in two months—in March for the first round and April for the potential second round. Putin will win, so it won’t be free or fair, but the election’s dynamics—including the protests—may show how strong the opposition is. Internal security may be in jeopardy since Russian security services are concentrating on Ukraine. Outside of large urban areas, there is a larger chance of a serious incident. Putin wants a protracted conflict in the hopes that Western support wanes, so Russia’s strategy in the Ukrainian conflict won’t change. He will want the US election to go to Trump. The ongoing conflict will continue to damage Russia’s economy, necessitating additional steps to support the currency.