In 2023, Senators Tim Kaine and Marco Rubio passed a law making it harder for a U.S. president to pull out of NATO. The law says any president who wants to leave NATO needs approval from Congress, either through a two-thirds Senate vote or a special act of Congress. This law was designed to stop President Trump from making any sudden moves to pull the U.S. out of NATO after he spent years criticizing the alliance.
But here’s the catch: Legal experts believe Trump might still find a way around it, just like he did before. He has a history of ignoring laws he doesn’t like, especially when it comes to foreign policy.
The new law isn’t perfect. Scott Anderson, a legal expert, says it creates a situation where Congress could clash with the president, leading to a legal battle. The real question is: If Trump were to pull out of NATO, could Congress actually do anything about it? Could they take him to court? Experts are unsure. The Supreme Court usually stays out of political fights between Congress and the president, so it’s not clear who would win if the issue ever went to court.
What’s even more worrying is that Trump doesn’t need to formally leave NATO to cause problems. He could undermine the alliance by simply refusing to support NATO — like by not sending ambassadors or withholding U.S. troops from military exercises. This could weaken NATO without officially pulling out.
In the past, Trump ignored laws about withdrawing from international treaties. In 2020, he withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty without notifying Congress, despite a law that required it. The Trump administration argued that the president had the right to withdraw from treaties on his own, without Congress’s approval.
If Trump tries to pull the U.S. out of NATO, he could face backlash from Congress. In response, Senator Chris Van Hollen said that lawmakers will fight any efforts to weaken NATO, and they have a strong bipartisan commitment to keeping the U.S. in the alliance.
But even if Congress tries to block Trump, it’s not clear what would happen. The law is still new, and no president has ever tried to withdraw from NATO while Congress passed laws stopping it. Some experts argue that if Trump does take steps to pull the U.S. out, it could spark a major constitutional conflict.
For now, NATO members are watching closely. Trump has said that if NATO allies don’t meet their defense spending targets, he might not help them in a crisis. This has put pressure on NATO members to spend more on defense, but critics say Trump’s rhetoric is damaging the alliance. Despite the tension, some Republicans believe Trump’s tough talk has helped strengthen NATO, even if his behavior has undermined trust.
It’s clear that Trump could make NATO’s job harder, but whether he can actually pull the U.S. out is still an open question. Congress is ready to fight back, but they’ll have to figure out how to hold Trump accountable if he tries to ignore the law again.
As NATO faces more challenges, including tensions with Russia and the war in Ukraine, the question remains: Can the alliance stay united if the U.S. is on the edge of pulling away? The next few years could determine NATO’s future, depending on what actions Trump takes and how Congress responds.
