In the past year, discussions have revealed that U.S. labor market data may have been manipulated to look better than reality, with reports suggesting significant overstatements in job numbers. Despite official claims of strong job gains, a recent report from California's Legislative Analyst's Office revealed a starkly different truth: the state lost jobs in late 2023, contradicting earlier reports of growth. This revelation underscores ongoing concerns about the accuracy of job data, which is annually revised by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The discrepancy has raised doubts about the true state of the economy and the impact of policy decisions, hinting at larger implications for future economic policies.

We have discussed on several occasions over the past year how US labor market data has been manipulated to make it look better than it is. However, due to a peculiarity in BLS data revision reporting, we won't have concrete evidence of how bad the actual job market has...