The Forgotten Missile: Russia’s Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Strikes

Russia launched a missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This missile, which has been linked to an old Russian missile program, has now been officially named “Oreshnik” by President Vladimir Putin. However, the true identity of this missile is still shrouded in mystery. While many experts initially believed the missile used was the RS-26 Rubezh, a missile thought to be long-forgotten, new reports are suggesting that it’s a revived version, or something very similar, of the RS-26.

The Forgotten Missile: Russia’s Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Strikes 1

Let’s dive into the story behind this missile and why it’s such a big deal.

The RS-26: A Missile with a Controversial Past

The RS-26, also called Rubezh, is a medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that was first developed by Russia around 2008. This missile was designed to be road-mobile and capable of hitting targets hundreds or even thousands of miles away. Initially, the RS-26 caused a stir because its range put it in a gray area between the two major missile categories—intermediate-range (IRBM) and intercontinental-range (ICBM).

Here’s the twist: Although it was meant to be a long-range weapon, its development was halted in 2018 because of political and financial reasons. Russia even officially announced that the RS-26 program was over, but the Pentagon had hints that some work was still being done on it even after the shutdown. And now, with the recent strike on Dnipro, many are wondering if Russia secretly revived the RS-26—or if the Oreshnik missile is just a newer, more advanced version.

What’s the Deal with Oreshnik?

Putin’s announcement of the missile being called Oreshnik has raised even more questions. Officially, the Oreshnik is described as a hypersonic missile, meaning it can travel at speeds faster than sound, making it very difficult to intercept. This makes the missile incredibly dangerous in modern warfare. However, despite the fancy name and claims of being a new weapon, many experts believe it might just be a rebirth of the old RS-26 missile, with some tweaks to make it more powerful and effective.

After all, the RS-26 had already been tested in the early 2010s and demonstrated that it could fly long distances. It could even reach targets far beyond its expected range, but Russia had to be careful about how it marketed it because of international treaties that banned certain types of missiles. In 2019, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty collapsed, giving Russia more freedom to develop and test missiles that could be banned under the treaty.

Some reports mentioned the RS-26 missile. Even if we believe them, RS-26 is not really an intercontinental missile. It was tested at the range of more than 5500 km, but it is in effect an intermediate-range missile, (think of it as SS-20 2.0): russianforces.org/blog/2017/07… 2/

Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) 2024-11-21T10:11:00.678Z

This could explain why Russia decided to bring the RS-26, or something similar, back into action now. The use of the Oreshnik missile in Dnipro may not just be about military strategy—it could also be about sending a strong message.

Why Did Russia Use It Now?

The strike on Dnipro, while shocking, may have been a calculated move by Russia. For one, this missile can fly long distances—around 500 miles from its launch site at Kapustin Yar, which is more than enough to reach a target like Dnipro. The missile is also hard for Ukraine’s air defense systems to stop, making it an ideal choice for a powerful strike.

The Forgotten Missile: Russia’s Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Strikes 2
A road-mobile RS-24 Yars ICBM, from which the Russians reportedly developed the RS-26. Vitaly Kuzmin

Another important factor is the timing. Ukraine’s recent ability to launch long-range missiles into Russia may have prompted Moscow to retaliate with a missile that could potentially carry a nuclear payload, though it’s believed this missile was conventionally armed for the Dnipro strike. Using a weapon like this gives Russia a chance to show its strength and remind the world of its capability.

The Bigger Picture

If the missile used in Dnipro really is a version of the RS-26 or something derived from it, it could mark a significant shift in the way Russia uses its weapons. For years, this missile was mostly kept in the shadows. But now, it’s possible that Russia is testing the waters with the Oreshnik, or reviving the RS-26 as a way to deal with Ukraine’s advances—and perhaps as a message to the West about Russia’s growing missile power.

This missile is not just about the strike on Dnipro; it’s a piece of a much larger puzzle in Russia’s strategy. By using a missile that can travel great distances and potentially carry a nuclear warhead, Russia is showing that it can hit targets anywhere in Europe. It’s also a way for Russia to assert its military dominance at a time of escalating tensions.

What Happens Next?

For now, the Oreshnik’s exact capabilities and its relationship to the RS-26 remain a mystery. We don’t know whether it’s a completely new missile or an upgraded version of the old RS-26. What we do know is that the missile strike on Dnipro represents a new chapter in Russia’s missile warfare, and it’s likely that we’ll see more of these weapons in future strikes.

As the war in Ukraine continues, this missile could play a key role in Russia’s strategy, whether it’s used for conventional strikes or as a way to send a powerful message to NATO and the United States.

The world is watching, and Russia has just shown that it has some serious missile firepower up its sleeve.

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