The much-anticipated arrival of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine is stirring up excitement, but experts warn that their impact might not be as dramatic as hoped. Though these advanced planes are set to boost Ukraine’s air defenses, they are expected to stay away from the front lines due to Russia’s strong air defenses. With only a limited number of jets and a slow training process for pilots, the F-16s are unlikely to change the course of the conflict immediately. Instead, they might just serve as a morale booster and a symbol of Western support, while the real impact on the battlefield remains uncertain.
The much-anticipated F-16 fighter jets are scheduled to arrive in Ukraine in a few weeks, but officials from both the West and Ukraine warn that although Kyiv initially hailed the planes as a revolutionary weapon, they are unlikely to have an instant impact on the battlefield—where Russia is gradually gaining ground reports the Washington Post.
Simply said, there are simply too few aircraft and too many Russian air defense systems to be able to bring them down. That means that rather of attacking Russia’s advancing ground forces and other military objectives close to the front, the first F-16s will probably be used to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses by shooting down aerial targets like missiles, drones, and aircraft.
The planes are not expected to fly very close to the front lines of combat, at least not at first, according to officials. As a result, it is uncertain if they will even be able to prevent assaulting enemy aircraft from entering Ukraine from Russian airspace.
Although 80 F-16s will be sent to Ukraine by Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway, the majority of those planes won’t arrive for years. The United States has never promised nor supplied any aircraft, while for a long time opposing Kyiv’s desire to have jets transferred to it by NATO members last summer.
The number of planes Kyiv will receive this year is unknown, but officials said only one squadron, or roughly 20 jets, will be delivered, and only six pilots should finish training by this summer due to the program’s limited capacity and delays.
The anticipated restricted use of the aircraft manufactured in the United States underscores a growing rift between Kyiv and its Western backers. Because of Russia’s strong air defenses, U.S. officials have long maintained that the F-16s were unlikely to offer Ukraine a clear advantage. Nonetheless, the response from Ukrainian officials is a well-worn refrain: the West has provided too little, too late in terms of F-16s as well as other equipment.
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine needs more than 100 F-16s to counter Russia’s formidable air force, and the number of fighters it is currently receiving is “insufficient.”
This month, he declared, “The decision on the F-16 is strategic.” “The number is not yet strategic.”
There are analysts who are even less optimistic than Zelensky. The F-16s may be most effective as a psychological and morale boost for Ukrainians and a specter for Russian conscripts, according to Becca Wasser, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security. This is partly because the battlefield has changed since the decision to send the planes was made last year.
“We’ve seen this pretty routine pattern when it comes to Western military equipment for Ukraine,” she said. “There’s an immediate need for them. Often by the time they are delivered that immediate operational need is null and void based on the rate of battlefield adaptation.”
However, Wasser noted that because of their twin purpose of taking out enemy aircraft and striking ground targets, they might potentially be able to meet urgent needs.
The Western countries providing Ukraine with the fighter jets have not yet revealed any limitations on their intended usage. In other instances, Ukraine is unable to attack targets in Russia using Western weapons. According to officials, Kyiv is only allowed to fire less than 100 kilometers—or around 62 miles—inside the border.
According to officials, F-16s are initially scheduled to fly at a cautious distance from the front, thus the topic of limits may not even come up.
“Dozens” of pilots were selected for F-16 training, according to a Ukrainian defense official, who, like others in this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security topic. However, the official stated that Ukraine is only able to deploy one set of pilots and engineering experts at a time due to a lack of teachers and training facilities.
Even for seasoned pilots, operating an aircraft requires a yearlong process that begins with four months of English instruction in Britain to acquire essential vocabulary.
According to the defense source, Ukraine cannot afford to lose so many of its skilled pilots for an extended period of time since they are required for combat missions.
“The main restriction … is the amount of planes and time of training,” a second Ukrainian official said. “If Russia has 300 [fighters] and you have much less, you can’t operate properly.”
“We will not use it too close to the Russians” due to the threat of air defenses, the official said, adding that Ukraine also lacks some technical gear and additional training for maintenance engineers.
Regarding the F-16s that were sent to Ukraine and Russia’s preparations to counter them, the Pentagon refused to comment.
Regular F-16s are equipped with a range of weaponry that enable them to hit enemy positions on the ground and target enemy aircraft.
But in a recent interview with The Guardian, Ukraine’s top military officer, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, stated that F-16s will fly at least 25 kilometers away from the front lines. As a result, it is unlikely that Ukraine will deploy the fighters to attack locations inside Russia.
According to a Ukrainian defense official, the F-16s stationed in Kyiv would be equipped with AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, which belong to a wider class of projectiles that are fired by ground air defense systems given by Western countries, known as NASAMS.
The official stated that one type of missile has a range of approximately 100 miles, which is more than numerous other aircraft-dropped bombs supplied to Ukraine.
However, the official stated that Ukraine must divide its limited stock of AIM-120 missiles between F-16s and NASAMS.
It will also be difficult to protect the F-16s on the ground because all of Ukraine’s airfields are vulnerable to Russian missiles. Moscow has mad some moves on multiple aircraft that were left unprotected on runways.
According to a Ukrainian defense official, “it’s not possible” for Kyiv to construct covered concrete hangars that would completely shield aircraft during hostilities. Alternatively, Ukraine sets up model planes as decoys on airfields and uses camouflaging techniques.
According to a top military official in Ukraine, Russia has been getting ready to supply Ukraine with F-16s. The official claimed that Russia fired multiple missiles with fake warheads from an S-400 air defense system in the occupied Crimean town of Dzankoy late last year.
The officer stated that he assumed Moscow was testing the S-400’s range to shoot down airplanes, noting that the missiles reached the Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk, which is more than 200 miles distant.
Officials and pilots in Ukraine have long lamented their antiquated fleet of MiG-29, Su-27, and Su-24 aircraft, which has a shorter radar detection range of approximately 25 miles compared to Russia’s more recent models of the same aircraft. Pilots are safer because they do not have to approach enemy aircraft as closely in order to shoot at them thanks to the F-16’s radar, which can detect targets up to 125 miles away.
Even while the F-16 is a step up from Ukraine’s current aircraft, it is still an older generation of fighter when compared to Russia’s more modern and advanced air force. The military intelligence agency of Ukraine earlier stated that Moscow possesses a fleet far larger than Ukraine’s, numbering over 200 fighters.
Russian air force has been demonstrated in riskier combat operations as Ukraine’s air defenses have degraded in recent months, particularly in the vicinity of the front. According to officials, guided glide bombs, one of Russia’s most lethal weapons, are almost impossible for Ukrainian forces to shoot down once they are launched. Attacking the planes or their bases is the only way to solve the problem.
However, officials claimed that some Russian planes may be deterred from dropping the bombs by the possibility of encountering F-16s.
Since the beginning of Russia’s special operation, Ukraine has begged for fighter planes, but the US first resisted the proposal. Under intense criticism, the Biden administration changed course in May 2023.
At the time, Ukrainian officials were hoping to have them in theaters by then, possibly in time for their counteroffensive in 2023, but it quickly became apparent that schedule was wildly inaccurate.
European countries, led by the Netherlands and Denmark, intervened to organize the training. The United States, the Netherlands, and Denmark confirmed that “Ukraine will be flying operational F-16s this summer” in a statement released during the most recent NATO summit.
Proponents of the proposal assert that it will help balance the playing field with Russia, which has advanced in Ukraine with close air assistance.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss battlefield evaluations, a NATO officer stated that when you can “actually call in close support from overhead, that gives you significant advantage, and an ability to actually move a battle line, a battle front, forward.” “So the arrival of fighter aircraft certainly gives Ukraine more capability.”
However, there have long been concerns about the overall effect. Particularly, the United States never seemed to be thrilled, initially claiming that there were other priorities and then, more recently, claiming that there wouldn’t be enough pilots or support to make good use of the aircraft.
Speaking under anonymity to brief the media last month, a senior Defense Department official stated, “The training pipeline is pretty meager.”
Former F-16 pilot Michelle “Mace” Curran stated that the aircraft is an improvement over Ukraine’s current Soviet-era jets. Pilots can keep farther away from enemy fire by using its sensors and missiles to monitor and shoot at targets that are invisible to the human eye.
According to Curran, one difficulty facing Ukraine is the F-16’s complexity, which necessitates a thorough maintenance schedule including experts in avionics, engines, and fuel.
Curran used to be a member of the Thunderbirds exhibition team, which travels with eight decommissioned planes. Curran highlighted the necessary upkeep by stating that about ninety of the staff of one hundred and thirty are maintenance personnel.
“I think people are waiting for this climactic moment of the jets arrive and everything shifts, and it just doesn’t work like that,” Curran said. “They’re complicated. They’re complex to support and to operate. It’s exciting, but we have to be a little bit patient to see the results.”
According to Wasser, the defense analyst, there’s a possibility the F-16s will end up like the Abrams tanks supplied by the United States. A small number arrived after the situation had shifted, and their influence on the counteroffensive of the previous year was questionable. Nevertheless, she noted, it’s feasible that the F-16s will help Ukraine with its need for stronger air defenses.
According to Wasser, it makes sense to employ the planes sparingly. “If you have this exquisite capability, are you going to use it immediately, knowing that there’s a greater risk of it being expended?” she said. “Or are you going to withhold it and use it so it has broader strategic value?”
Recently, GreatGameInternational reported that Russian drone and missile attacks have devastated Ukraine’s air force, destroying multiple Sukhoi Su-27 fighters and raising serious concerns about the future safety of incoming F-16 jets from Western allies.
2 Responses
No!
This is the final war!
Satan (Ukraine/NATO/Jews) against
God (Russia/The Free World)
Satan will not win this final battle!
Fighter too frightened to go near the enemy. Yes that’ll make the world of difference.