At the 23rd meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Islamabad, Pakistan, something unusual caught people’s attention. Two important leaders were there: Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Aref and India’s Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. But there was one big question—why wasn’t India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi present?
To understand why, we need to look at the bigger picture. Relations between India and Pakistan have been strained for a long time. Back in 2014, when Modi became prime minister, there were hopes that things might improve. However, several major incidents, like the Uri and Pulwama attacks in Kashmir in 2016 and 2019, and the Indian government’s decision to remove Jammu and Kashmir’s special status in 2019, made things much worse.
Because of these tensions, leaders from both countries are now extremely cautious. They avoid making any friendly gestures that could be seen as weakness by the other side. Modi, for instance, staying away from the meeting in Pakistan, was likely a way of not giving the impression that India is softening its stance toward Pakistan. Additionally, with India’s rocky relationship with China—especially after a deadly clash in Galwan Valley in 2020—Modi’s attendance at a Pakistan-hosted event would have been a risky move. Pakistan is often seen as an ally of China, and Modi appearing at the meeting could have been viewed back home in India as conceding to both adversaries at once.
Some experts have criticized Modi’s absence, saying it shows that the SCO is not effective if key leaders aren’t attending. But it’s important to note two things. First, India’s Minister of External Affairs, Dr. Jaishankar, is a powerful figure in Indian politics, not just a stand-in. He is part of Modi’s inner circle and has a direct say in decision-making. So, India’s presence at the event wasn’t insignificant just because Modi wasn’t there. Second, we shouldn’t jump to conclusions about the effectiveness of the SCO based on one event. The SCO has evolved over the years, and its goals have shifted from resolving border disputes to addressing broader security issues.
A Platform for Big Issues
The SCO, which started in 1996 with five founding members—Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—was initially created to resolve border disputes between them. By 2011, those issues were largely settled, and the organization shifted its focus to combatting terrorism, extremism, and separatism. More recently, the SCO has also become a forum for discussing security in Eurasia, a large region stretching from Eastern Europe to Asia.
India and Pakistan became full members of the SCO in 2017, and Iran joined in 2023. With these additions, the SCO now represents over 40% of the world’s population and more than a quarter of the global economy. This makes the organization very important on the global stage.
Despite the tensions between India and Pakistan, both countries still participate in joint anti-terrorism drills and other security exercises under the SCO. However, real cooperation between the two remains elusive. India believes that Pakistan supports militants in Kashmir, while Pakistan accuses India of backing groups that target Pakistan. These accusations, rooted in decades of hostility, make true trust between the two difficult.
The Kashmir Dilemma
At the heart of the India-Pakistan conflict is the disputed region of Kashmir. Both countries claim the territory, and it has been a major flashpoint for conflict for decades. The SCO, however, cannot help resolve this issue because the Shimla Agreement (1972) and Lahore Declaration (1999) between India and Pakistan specifically exclude third-party mediation in their bilateral disputes. So, while the SCO is a platform for discussing security, it cannot tackle the key problem between India and Pakistan.
Still, both nations see the SCO as a useful forum for discussing regional and global security. They view the organization as important for Eurasian stability and the promotion of a multipolar world order, where no single country (like the U.S.) dominates.
A Delicate Balancing Act
There is tension, however, in how India and Pakistan—and many other SCO members—view the organization’s direction. Russia and China, for example, are pushing for the SCO to take a stronger anti-Western stance, especially as relations between the West and these two countries worsen. But India and Pakistan have strong ties with Western nations, including the U.S. and European countries. They don’t want to risk upsetting these important relationships by aligning too closely with the more confrontational side of the SCO.
This balancing act—participating in an organization that includes both adversaries and allies—makes things complicated for India and Pakistan. For example, both countries support the SCO’s goals on paper, but are cautious about putting too much political capital into it, especially as the global political landscape becomes more polarized.
So, What Does Modi’s Absence Mean?
Does Modi’s absence mean India is stepping back from the SCO? Not necessarily. Even though India and Pakistan are unlikely to resolve their territorial disputes within the SCO, both nations still find ways to participate in the organization. They engage in joint counter-terrorism drills, and this kind of military cooperation is essential for maintaining communication between their armed forces and intelligence agencies, even if it doesn’t lead to closer political ties.
Furthermore, foreign policy often moves slowly. Diplomatic decisions, like India and Pakistan joining the SCO, take years to play out. While immediate breakthroughs are unlikely, being part of the SCO keeps channels of communication open, which could help prevent conflicts in the future.
In short, Modi’s absence from the SCO meeting doesn’t spell the end of India’s involvement in the organization. Instead, it reflects the cautious, complex relationships India navigates with both Pakistan and China, as well as its commitment to balancing its ties with the West. The SCO may not be the stage where India and Pakistan resolve their deep-seated issues, but it remains an important forum for both countries in shaping the future of Eurasian security.
