After a ten-year break, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is gearing up for highly anticipated assembly elections. The last elections were held in 2014, and since then, a lot has changed in the region. The Indian government made a massive move in 2019 by revoking J&K’s special semi-autonomous status, which had been in place for decades under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. This action shook the political and social landscape of J&K, and now, as elections approach, everyone is wondering how these changes will play out.

The political scene has transformed since then. Old alliances have broken apart, new parties have emerged, and even some separatist groups that previously refused to participate in elections are now reconsidering their positions. The stakes are higher than ever, and all eyes are on the key players who will shape the future of this conflict-ridden region.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Will They Break Into Kashmir?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), India’s ruling party, has been gaining ground in J&K—at least in the Hindu-majority Jammu province. In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP won 25 seats, making them the second-largest party, but all of these victories were in Jammu. They haven’t had much success in the Kashmir province, where the majority is Muslim. 

In the upcoming elections, the BJP is confident it will continue to dominate in Jammu, but the question remains whether they can finally crack the tough Kashmir province. To increase their chances, BJP leaders are keeping an eye on potential alliances with Kashmiri political groups. Though they claim they won’t form a pre-election coalition, the BJP may need help from smaller, nationalist, and pro-development parties to secure enough seats to form the next government.

National Conference (NC) and Indian National Congress (INC): Old Guard Stays Strong

Two of J&K’s oldest political forces, the National Conference (NC) and the Indian National Congress (INC), have teamed up for the upcoming elections. Together, they hope to cover all areas of the region—NC focusing on the Kashmir province and INC taking charge in Jammu.

They’ve divided up the 90 assembly seats: NC will contest 51 seats, and INC will fight for 32, with a few seats left for other smaller parties like the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Panthers Party. While their alliance is strong, some friendly competition remains as the two parties disagree on a few seats. However, they are determined to challenge BJP’s dominance, especially in Jammu, where INC hopes to perform better than in past elections.

Peoples Democratic Party (PDP): A Party on the Edge

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has a tumultuous past. Formed in 1998, the PDP has governed J&K twice, most recently from 2014 to 2018 in an alliance with the BJP. However, the alliance fell apart over deep disagreements. Since then, the PDP has become one of the most vocal critics of the Indian government’s decision to revoke J&K’s special status.

While the PDP has pledged not to participate in elections until J&K’s autonomy is restored, they are now eyeing a handful of seats in the upcoming polls. Despite losing all their seats in the 2024 general elections, they’re hoping to win enough in the assembly election to stay relevant in Kashmir’s political arena. They’re also part of the broader anti-BJP INDI alliance, but notably, they are not included in the J&K electoral coalition.

Small but Mighty: Peoples Conference, Apni Party, and DPAP

Three smaller parties—Peoples Conference (PC), Apni Party (AP), and Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP)—are vying for influence in Kashmir. These parties may not have a statewide presence, but they could play a crucial role in the event of a fractured mandate, where no single party can form a government on its own.

Peoples Conference, led by former separatist leader Sajad Lone, has some strongholds in northern Kashmir, although they’ve been accused of being too close to the BJP. Apni Party, formed in 2020, also faces similar accusations, as its leader Altaf Bukhari was once a minister in the BJP-PDP coalition. Democratic Progressive Azad Party, led by former INC rebel Ghulam Nabi Azad, is the newest party on the scene and could be a key player in the mix.

Although these parties have limited influence across the entire region, they have the potential to sway results in tightly contested areas. If no major party can win an outright majority, these smaller outfits may hold the balance of power.

Awami Ittehad Party (AIP): The Jailhouse Politician

The Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) is led by Sheikh Abdul Rashid, a politician currently incarcerated on terrorism charges. Despite his imprisonment, Rashid made waves in the 2024 general elections, defeating former state chief Omar Abdullah and outperforming other parties in northern Kashmir. His success has shaken up traditional parties like NC and INC, who are now viewing AIP as a serious contender. 

AIP is positioning itself as the primary opposition to BJP and promises to focus on human rights issues in the region. Although Rashid’s circumstances are unusual, his strong performance in the general elections has made the party one to watch in the upcoming assembly elections.

Separatists: A New Twist in Kashmir Politics

One of the most surprising developments in these elections is the participation of separatist groups. For decades, separatists in Kashmir have refused to participate in elections, viewing them as an endorsement of Indian rule over the region. But after the Indian government’s crackdown on separatist activities following the revocation of Article 370, some groups, like Jamaat-e-Islami (JeL), are reconsidering their stance.

While these groups still won’t field candidates directly, they have indicated they will support certain independent candidates in the polls. This is a major shift and could have a big impact on the results, especially in areas where separatist sentiments run high.

The Big Question: What’s Next for Kashmir?

With so many players and unpredictable factors at play, this election is shaping up to be one of the most significant in J&K’s history. Will the BJP finally break through in Kashmir? Will the traditional powerhouses like NC and INC manage to hold on to their influence? How will the rise of smaller parties and the participation of separatists affect the outcome?

One thing is certain—Jammu and Kashmir’s political future is on the line, and the results of this election could have far-reaching consequences for the entire region.