In response to potential sanctions influenced by President Biden, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi announced considering action against companies in India, Uzbekistan, UAE, and China at the recent G-7 summit.
If this turns out to be true, India might believe that its American benefactor set Japan up for this, which would make their multilateral attempts to control China’s rise more difficult.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi recently stated, “At the recent G-7 summit, we have announced that we are considering a new package of sanctions that will include companies from third countries,” according to Tribune India, which cited Japanese media. We are considering taking action against businesses in Uzbekistan, the UAE, China, and India. The Economic Times verified this information in a story citing anonymous persons purportedly knowledgeable of the circumstances.
Sanctioning Indian corporations on anti-Russian grounds would be a poor idea for Japan since it would sour their strategic relations. In addition to being close economic partners, India and Japan work together in the Quad, which, despite claims to the contrary made by former Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, is essentially just a talking club. The Quad is dominated by the US. Their well-earned mutual trust would be abruptly destroyed. It had been cultivated in the years following Japan’s 1998 sanctions against India over its nuclear testing.
The ramifications of that occurring could make the US’s ambitious strategic goals in Asia more difficult to implement. These plans rely in part on the full improvement of relations between Japan and India. Although China’s difficulties are separate from those of the US or Japan, India finds common ground with them in the management of China’s ascent. However, the recent strain in its relations with the US and the possibility of Japan imposing sanctions on its corporations may hinder their global collaboration in this regard.
India might also conclude that Japan was subjected to this by its American backer as part of the latter’s schemes to apply further pressure on it, essentially as retaliation for Japan’s refusal to give up Russia, as detailed in the previously hyperlinked analysis. After all, if Japan was truly worried about the effects that these penalties might have on their collaboration with India vis-à-vis China, the US could always step in behind the scenes to block it, though it may choose not to.
If such were the case, American leaders would have determined that punishing India was more essential than continuing to collaborate with it to advance their shared goal. This would imply that additional pressure may be placed on India in the future on pretexts related to Russia or other issues. The liberal-globalist camp in the US may have been encouraged to increase pressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi after seeing the most recent general elections in India as a sign of Modi’s weakness.
Rather than acting directly, they may have chosen to act first through Japan by having that nation impose sanctions on its companies for doing business with Russia. It is then possible that other G7 members, including the US, may decide to follow suit as part of a prearranged policy. To be clear, that may or may not occur, regardless of Japan’s decision to follow through on what Hayashi just said. Nevertheless, it’s a plausible enough prospect for India to consider in case.
Delhi would have to react if this series of events continues, but because of India’s intricate economic connection with the G7, which also serves to limit the scope of the bloc’s prospective sanctions, it may only respond in the form of angry denunciations rather than any effective action. In any event, there would be a breach of confidence, and India can resolutely strengthen its ties with Russia to convey the message that it won’t be stopped by such coercion.
Recently, GreatGameIndia reported that G7 leaders reached an agreement to use frozen Russian assets as collateral for a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, with the Biden administration emphasizing that Russia will bear the repayment responsibility.
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