In October 2024, something big started to happen in the post-Soviet world. Two small countries, Georgia and Moldova, had pivotal elections that could change the course of their futures and challenge Western influence in the region. For years, both countries had leaned toward Europe, seemingly committed to moving closer to the EU and distancing themselves from Russia. But recent election results suggest that the tide might be turning. Let’s dive into what happened and why it matters.
Why Compare Georgia and Moldova?
At first glance, Georgia and Moldova seem pretty different. They have unique cultures, issues, and histories. However, they also share a common struggle: deciding between aligning with Europe or maintaining neutrality and better relations with Russia. Since both nations declared a “European choice” years ago, the Western narrative has been clear—either go with the EU or risk Russia’s influence creeping back in. But this narrative paints the situation as black-and-white, missing the real complexities for both countries.
Moldova’s Referendum: A Narrow Win for the Pro-EU Camp
In Moldova, President Maia Sandu’s pro-European government held a referendum, asking the public whether EU membership should be written into their constitution. They expected a sweeping victory for the pro-EU side, especially with President Sandu’s strong push for European integration. But the results were much closer than they expected. Only 54% of voters supported EU membership, with 45% against it. The result wasn’t the overwhelming support they had hoped for—it was a close call.
And here’s where things get interesting: this narrow win was largely influenced by Moldovans living abroad in the West, who strongly favored EU integration. Moldovans in Russia, however, were barely able to vote—only 10,000 ballot papers were printed for hundreds of thousands of people, while Western-based voters had access to several hundred polling stations. This move left many feeling that the referendum outcome was rigged. In the end, while Sandu’s government managed to hold onto the pro-EU direction, it was a win that felt hollow and controversial.
Georgia’s Election: A Resounding No to Western Pressure
Meanwhile, in Georgia, the story was different. The parliamentary elections there became a showdown between the ruling party, Georgian Dream, and the pro-Western opposition, led by President Salome Zourabichvili. Georgian Dream, despite all odds, won a clear victory, gaining 54% of the votes and nearly 90 out of 150 seats in parliament.
This result came despite heavy pressure from Western powers. Brussels warned Georgia of suspending EU membership talks if they didn’t adopt Western-backed policies, and Georgian Dream faced backlash for proposing a law on “foreign agents” to reduce outside interference in domestic affairs. In response, the opposition accused the government of giving in to Russia and held protests. But the people voted with Georgian Dream anyway, choosing stability and economic growth over conflict and Western influence.
The Ukraine Effect: Shadows of War and Fear
One major influence on both elections was the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Since 2014, Ukraine has leaned firmly toward the West, aiming to join the EU and NATO. But that decision has come with high costs—war, destruction, and a humanitarian crisis that continues today. The West didn’t step in to protect Ukraine as fully as many Ukrainians had hoped, leaving the country to face a powerful neighbor alone.
For Georgia and Moldova, Ukraine’s experience has been a warning. Georgia, which fought its own brief war with Russia in 2008, doesn’t want to end up in the same situation. In the election, Georgian Dream campaigned on a platform of peace, promising to avoid conflict with Russia and continue economic growth by maintaining balanced relations. Moldovans, too, have faced similar anxieties. With the frozen conflict in Transnistria, Moldova worries it could be dragged into another war if it gets too close to the EU and NATO.
A Growing Crisis for the Western Dream in Eastern Europe
These elections indicate a major shift in the former Soviet region, where the allure of Western integration is losing its charm. For years, the EU and the US promoted the idea that closer ties with Europe and the West would bring progress, prosperity, and democracy. But after seeing the struggles and challenges faced by Ukraine, as well as the restrictions and interference that come with Western alignment, many are beginning to question whether the EU path is the only way forward.
In Moldova, the narrow pro-EU win shows a divided country, with the people back home leaning away from Europe, even as the diaspora supports it. In Georgia, voters chose their own government’s pragmatic stance over Western expectations.
What’s Next? Not Pro-Russia, But Pro-Themselves
It would be an exaggeration to say that Moldova and Georgia are suddenly becoming pro-Russian. What’s happening is more subtle: they’re choosing paths that best suit their national interests, balancing relations with both Europe and Russia to maintain stability and peace.
This moment marks a significant turning point. For the past 30 years, Europe’s influence seemed unstoppable in the post-Soviet region. But with these elections, we’re seeing that the “European choice” isn’t the only choice—and the people in these countries are starting to see other options that may better serve them.
