This weekend’s election in Georgia ended in a predictable way: the ruling Georgian Dream party declared victory. But the pro-Western opposition isn’t happy. They’re questioning the results, calling for protests, and, possibly, pushing for a movement that looks a lot like the “color revolutions” of the past. If they succeed, they could overturn the election results through protest and even force, but it’s not that simple.
For a ‘color revolution’ to work, two things usually need to happen. First, an outside power—think the United States or the European Union—would need to back the opposition, putting heavy pressure on Georgia’s leaders. Second, those leaders would have to believe that they can’t risk a bad relationship with that powerful patron. However, it’s unclear if either of these conditions can be met in today’s Georgia.
Tbilisi’s Uncertain Stand-Off
In Tbilisi, the atmosphere feels tense and familiar. Flashbacks to past revolutions—where crowds gathered, the ruling government stood firm, and international headlines turned their attention to Georgia—loom over the capital. But today’s circumstances are different. While the EU and US have been critical of the Georgian Dream party’s approach and have expressed disappointment over its political direction, they haven’t shown much interest in taking strong action.
Why? The Western powers are occupied with their own issues. In the past, they were more eager to throw support behind political shifts in places like Georgia. But now, that passion for exporting Western democratic ideals through intense support for revolutions isn’t there. Without the energy and resources that used to come from Washington or Brussels, a large-scale ‘color revolution’ in Georgia might lack the support it needs.
How the Opposition is Trying to Spark Change
The opposition, on the other hand, is persistent. They’ve played this game before—questioning election results, rallying their supporters, and hoping for a reaction from the government. By provoking the government, they hoped for a strong response that would show the Georgian Dream party in a harsh light, perhaps gaining the sympathy of foreign powers. But the stakes aren’t as high as they used to be, and the situation is more complicated.
Why the Georgian Dream is Standing Its Ground
The ruling party isn’t intimidated. Led by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the Georgian Dream seems sure of one thing: most citizens, even if they aren’t loudly pro-government, support them quietly. They’re confident in their ability to hold onto power without relying heavily on the West. Unlike some of their neighbors who might fear angering Western allies, Georgian Dream feels they have the room to act independently. They don’t feel the same pressure to keep the West on their side at all costs, making it easier to ignore calls from the opposition to overturn the election results.
In fact, the Georgian Dream has recently been taking a bold approach with Western powers, at times even challenging them. So, while the opposition may attempt to push for change using the same tactics that have worked in the past, they’re dealing with a government that isn’t easily rattled.
Is Another Revolution Really Possible?
Could the opposition pull off another ‘color revolution’ despite these challenges? It’s possible, but the odds aren’t in their favor. A lot would have to go right for them and wrong for the Georgian Dream. While the opposition is still loudly voicing its disapproval, the real question is whether the West has any interest in getting seriously involved. Without outside backing and pressure, a full-blown revolution is far less likely.
In Georgia, as the old Soviet saying goes, “There’s always room for a miracle.” But for now, the pro-Western opposition faces an uphill battle, and the ruling party is feeling secure. Tbilisi may be tense, but it’s not yet time for another ‘color revolution’—at least not without some unexpected twists.
