Iranian oil tankers have quickly left Kharg Island, the country’s largest oil export terminal, due to fears of an imminent attack from Israel. The island handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports and is now seen as a possible target for Israel after a recent missile attack from Iran. Tensions have escalated, with Israel vowing to retaliate, and Kharg Island appears to be a top target on their list.
Tankers on the Move
On Thursday, TankerTrackers, a service that monitors global oil shipping, reported that the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) emptied its Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) supertankers from the area around Kharg Island. The empty tankers had been docked there, but suddenly left, hinting that the company is bracing for an Israeli strike. TankerTrackers posted this information on Twitter, noting that this is the first time they’ve seen such a move since sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2018.
Though the facility is still loading oil onto ships, all the extra tanker capacity is now gone. This makes it clear that Iran may be anticipating something big.
Satellite Images Show All Tankers Are Gone
A media outlet called HunterBrook analyzed 105 satellite images of the area, some dating back to November, and confirmed that this is the first time since then that no tankers were seen around the island. Usually, Kharg Island’s anchorage is busy with large ships waiting to be filled with crude oil. The sudden absence of these tankers strongly suggests that Iran is preparing for the worst.
U.S. and Israel Weigh Their Options
The possibility of a strike is not just an Israeli decision. U.S. President Joe Biden hinted on Thursday that an Israeli attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure might be under consideration. When asked if he supported such an action, he replied, “We’re in discussion of that.” Though he didn’t confirm anything directly, it’s clear that Israel is weighing several options.
Many Israeli officials believe that hitting Iran’s oil facilities, including Kharg Island, could weaken the country’s economy by disrupting its main source of revenue. However, others argue that Israel might also target Iran’s air defense systems or carry out assassinations of key Iranian figures, similar to how it eliminated a Hamas leader in Tehran two months ago.
The Bigger Picture
Oil prices have already spiked since Iran’s missile barrage on Israel, with Brent crude jumping 5% as energy markets brace for further escalation. If Israel attacks Kharg Island or other oil facilities in Iran, it could push prices even higher, affecting global supply and raising concerns about a direct conflict between the two nations.
Not only would Iran’s exports be affected, but Israel’s own oil infrastructure could also be targeted if Iran retaliates. Israeli oil refineries, which produce 287,000 barrels per day, could be in the crosshairs of an Iranian counterstrike.
Israel Promises Retaliation
The Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, has made it clear that Israel will respond. “We will respond, we know how to locate important targets, we know how to strike with precision and power,” he said. His words suggest that Israel has already identified critical targets in Iran, including oil facilities, and is prepared to act swiftly.
While a strike on Kharg Island seems the most likely course of action, Israel could also opt for more unconventional methods. With ongoing military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel’s forces are already stretched thin, raising questions about how and when they will strike back against Iran.
What Will Happen Next?
The situation is rapidly unfolding, and both nations are on high alert. Israel’s next move could be a game-changer, and Iran’s response could escalate tensions even further. As the world watches, the question remains: will Israel hit Iran’s vital oil terminal, or will they choose a different, less predictable route?
Either way, the conflict seems ready to reach new heights, with global oil prices, regional security, and international alliances all hanging in the balance.
