Ukraine is facing a major energy dilemma as Hungary and Slovakia threaten to cut off its electricity supply if Ukraine doesn’t ensure oil transport to these countries. With around 40% of Ukraine’s electricity imports coming through Hungary, such a move could lead to severe blackouts in Ukraine, which is already struggling with power shortages due to war damage. The threat comes as tensions rise over oil delivery issues, with Hungary and Slovakia accusing Ukraine of blackmail. This high-stakes energy dispute could dramatically impact Ukraine’s power situation if the threat becomes a reality.
In recent talks between Hungary and Slovakia, a serious issue has come up: if Ukraine doesn’t ensure that oil is transported to Hungary and Slovakia, these countries might cut off or reduce their electricity supply to Ukraine. This information was reported by Magyar Nemzet on Friday afternoon. Experts have confirmed that such a response is possible with coordination between Slovakia and Hungary.
Ukraine relies heavily on imports for its electricity. About 40% of the electricity Ukraine gets from other countries comes through its border with Hungary. Olivér Hortay, an expert on climate and energy policy, shared that Ukraine’s biggest energy problem right now is its electricity system. Due to the ongoing war, Ukraine has lost three-quarters of its electricity generation capacity, leading to frequent, unexpected blackouts.
To address this problem, Ukraine can increase its electricity imports. At times, more than 40% of Ukraine’s electricity imports come from Hungary. Losing this amount could seriously impact Ukraine’s power supply.
One crucial hub for electricity is the MAVIR station in Szabolcsbáka, Hungary. This station is a key part of both the European and Ukrainian electricity systems and is the only Hungarian and EU substation with a 750 kV system. Around 40% of Ukraine’s electricity imports pass through this station.
Ukraine has threatened to stop oil deliveries, which has raised concerns in Hungary and Slovakia. The European Commission responded, saying that Ukraine’s actions don’t threaten the supply for Hungary and Slovakia. However, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó disagreed, labeling Croatia as an unreliable transit country.
Gergely Gulyás, the minister in charge of the Prime Minister’s Office, criticized Ukraine’s actions, calling them unfair and contrary to EU agreements. He warned that Ukraine’s move poses a significant security risk for energy supplies.
Olivér Hortay noted that the agreement between Hungary and Slovakia states that neither country can limit each other’s imports, exports, or transit. Therefore, Ukraine’s actions are against the rules, and the European Commission should address this issue immediately. However, the Commission has decided not to hold a consultation, claiming there’s no immediate risk and suggesting that Russian oil could be replaced by oil from the Adriatic pipeline through Croatia.
Hortay also pointed out that the Adriatic pipeline can handle up to 11 million tons of oil per year, but Hungary and Slovakia together need 12 million tons, not including the oil needed for the Czech Republic. Croatia has suggested a higher capacity, but the details of how this would work are unclear.
