It didn’t take long for Britain’s Chatham House think tank to outline a plan to counter Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s peace mission just ten days into Hungary’s Presidency of the Council of the European Union. In a post titled “Orbán Is Using Hungary’s EU Council Presidency To Bulldoze EU Norms,” Senior Research Fellow Armida van Rij criticizes Orbán’s actions. She argues that he should have focused on leading Council meetings and sticking to the EU’s agenda. Instead, she claims he has tried to confuse things by displaying EU flags in Kyiv and using Hungary’s presidency logo in promotional material for his trip to China. She finally proposes to seize Hungary’s money and use hard power to punish Orban for trying to stop the war machine.
Here is Britain’s Chatham House Senior Research Fellow Armida van Rij’s proposed plan to punish Hungary:
Hungary assumed the six-month rotating presidency of the European Union Council on July 1. National ministers convene in the Council to negotiate and approve EU legislation as well as the EU budget, among other matters.
The member state in charge of the presidency is responsible for directing the legislative agenda through the chairing of Council meetings, maintaining good relations with other EU institutions, and guaranteeing the continuation of the EU policy agenda.
Theoretically, its authority is mostly concentrated on the day-to-day operations of the EU. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wants to make changes after just two weeks in office.
Orbán’s journeys illustrate a tale of upheaval
On the second day of his presidency, Orbán made his first journey to Ukraine in twelve years to visit President Zelenskyy. On the fifth day, he went to Moscow to meet President Putin. Orbán traveled to China unexpectedly this week to meet with Xi Jinping, and he is currently making the sole scheduled journey to Washington, DC, for the NATO Summit. What does Orbán’s jet-setting reveal about his intentions?
Travelling to Russia to meet the head of a government under EU sanctions, which has disregarded the territorial integrity of another state, is unprecedented.
Even though Orbán is traveling in a bilateral capacity, he has attempted to confuse by flying EU flags in Kyiv and using the logo of the Hungarian presidency on his travel brochure to China. EU leaders and heads of government have expressed concern over erroneous reports in Chinese and Russian media claiming Orban traveled on behalf of the EU.
Hungary has framed the travels as a “peace mission” to assist in mediating an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Although Orbán believes he is one of the few who can communicate with both parties, in practice he is not required to.
It is extraordinary to travel to Russia to speak with the head of a government that has disrespected the territorial integrity of another state while under EU sanctions. By doing this during the week that Hungary has assumed the rotating Council president, the EU treaties’ guidelines for the presidency are being subverted. More significantly, it may be against EU legislation to allow ambiguity regarding whether he travels on behalf of Hungary or the EU.
Nevertheless, this is standard Orbán behavior. During his speech at Chatham House earlier this year, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó made it very apparent that his country’s goal is to cause disruptions.
It’s concerning that other people connect with this strategy. Although they do not always agree on foreign policy, Orbán is courting supporters in Slovakia such as Mateusz Morawiecki, who served in the last Polish cabinet, and Robert Fico. Along with far-right parties, nationalists from the Czech, French, Spanish, and Dutch countries have joined Orbán’s new political group in the European parliament.
Orbán has been invited to speak at several Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) events by ultra-conservative Americans who aspire to follow in his footsteps. The challenge is increased since he is no longer as isolated within Europe and outside as he once was.
Hungary has not been forced or pressured to revert to its previous behavior by the EU’s lackluster response. The use of carrot-and-stick measures, including withholding EU funding, to combat democratic backsliding has only been sporadic. These haven’t been able to stop Orbán from acting in an obstructionist manner or Hungary’s democratic regression as of yet.
Addressing the Orbán dilemma
Three issues face Hungary today: the misuse of the rotating presidency by Orbán; the nation’s retreat from democracy; and Orbán’s general obstructionism (given that Hungary is a NATO member). Rather than being perceived as discrete problems, these challenges should be viewed as a single systemic issue. To solve these, the EU needs to take a methodical, long-term approach.
Theoretically, the instruments required to tackle these issues are found in EU treaties. However, their deployment has only been half completed, with little to no impact. In the short term, some have suggested Poland’s presidency (due to the upcoming takeover) should be extended to solve the first challenge, which is Orbán’s exploitation of the rotating EU presidency. But, it may be incorrect to assume that EU members will desire to use their political capital on this.
Withholding funds remains perhaps the most effective lever the European Commission has for dealing with a transactional realist like Orbán.
Instead, it is more likely that Hungary will continue to lead the EU with many more surprises in store, which could have a catastrophic impact. Its institutions ought to shift into damage control mode; yet, this calls for decisive leadership, which becomes more challenging when the top roles are up for nomination and hearing over the coming months.
Even while it hasn’t always had much of an impact, withholding cash is still possibly the best tool the European Commission has to deal with a transactional realist like Orbán when it comes to addressing the issue of Hungary’s democratic backsliding.
Rather than imposing sporadic funding withholdings, the European Commission ought to undertake a systematic, extended, and deliberate endeavor. The yearly EU budget and the upcoming multi-annual financial framework, for which high-level negotiations will begin this year, should be linked to this. It should be especially focused on civil rights, media freedom, and bolstering an independent judiciary, using agricultural funds or cohesiveness as pressure.
Previous attempts to use Article 7 have highlighted its weakness.
Article 7 of the Treaty on the European Union was created to handle the third challenge of Orbán’s obstructive activities and behavior. It allows for the removal of a member state’s voting rights in the EU Council. However, prior attempts to apply Article 7 have shown its shortcomings.
For the tenure of Hungary’s president, Belgium, the previous rotating presidency holder, attempted to invoke Article 7 against Hungary a second time. Under the previous administration, Poland was the subject of Article 7 procedures initiated by the European Commission. These two tries yielded no fruit.
The politics at play here are somewhat to blame. The other member states must vote in unison to implement Article 7. In addition, although the European Commission is required to initiate infringement processes against member states that violate EU treaty rules, it is becoming more and more difficult for it to fully utilize the mechanism.
The limited impact of the instruments and procedures that are now available can be attributed to the inadequate use and lack of political will on the part of both the Commission and member states.
Even though Article 7 procedures are still improbable, the European Commission could want to think about making receiving any assistance from the EU contingent on upholding democratic institutions and EU values. Hungary is the third-largest net donor to the EU, and the Hungarian people continue to be strongly in favor of EU membership.
By establishing clear guidelines and standards for what constitutes a constructive EU member state and what behaviors will not be accepted, the Commission can make greater use of the financial leverage it has over Hungary.
Orbán is a realist who will only yield to coercion. He is not at all bothered by other heads of state or EU institutions expressing their outrage on social media, especially now that he is gathering allies and is not as isolated in Europe or on the international scene as he once was.
The EU needs a long-term strategy to stop and rectify member-state actions that jeopardize the European project.
End of proposed plan.
Recently, GreatGameInternational reported that on Thursday, during a debate with Donald Trump, President Joe Biden labeled Russian President Vladimir Putin a ‘war criminal’ and warned of potential invasions beyond Ukraine, suggesting threats to Poland and other regions.
One Response
The Foreign Nazis that created “israel”, NATO
and the European Nazi Soviet Union EU
WANT their Third World War and they will
HAVE it!
Lord have mercy on ANYBODY who gets
in their way!
HEIL NETANYAHU!