In recent months, Egypt has stepped up its involvement in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia. This comes as Cairo announced in August that it plans to send troops to Somalia under a new African Union mission. But this decision goes beyond mere peacekeeping. It’s part of a much larger game involving power, resources, and regional politics.

A New Mission in Somalia

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is set to start in January 2025. Its goal is to help Somalia fight against Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group linked to Al-Qaeda. Egypt has offered to send 10,000 troops for this mission—an unexpected move that has caught the attention of neighboring countries, especially Ethiopia.

Half of Egypt’s troops will work under the AUSSOM mission, while the other half will focus on a separate defense agreement between Egypt and Somalia. This partnership was sealed in August when Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Cairo to meet Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Soon after, Egyptian cargo planes began delivering weapons and military supplies to Somalia, and Egyptian soldiers started arriving in the capital, Mogadishu.

Ethiopia’s Growing Concerns

Egypt’s involvement in Somalia hasn’t gone unnoticed by Ethiopia, which shares a tense history with both countries. Ethiopia has had disputes with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a massive project on the Nile River. The dam is crucial for Ethiopia’s energy and development, but Egypt sees it as a threat to its water supply.

When Egypt announced its Somalia plans, Ethiopia responded with alarm, calling the region “uncharted waters.” Ethiopian troops are already stationed in Somalia as part of the current African Union mission, which will soon be replaced by AUSSOM. Ethiopia sees Egypt’s growing presence as a potential threat and has increased its military activity near Somalia’s border.

The Battle for Regional Influence

Somalia also has its own issues with Ethiopia. Earlier this year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed an agreement with Somaliland, a self-declared independent region of Somalia. This deal gives Ethiopia access to the Red Sea through Somaliland’s Port of Berbera. Somalia opposes the agreement, viewing it as a violation of its sovereignty.

Egypt, on the other hand, sees this as an opportunity to strengthen ties with Somalia against their common rival, Ethiopia. By partnering with Somalia, Egypt gains a strategic ally near Ethiopia’s borders, adding pressure to their ongoing disputes over the Nile and regional influence.

Why the Red Sea Matters

Ethiopia’s push for access to the Red Sea is another key issue in this regional chess game. As a landlocked country, Ethiopia has relied on Djibouti’s port for trade but is now looking for alternatives. This has raised alarm bells in neighboring countries, including Egypt, which fears losing its dominance over Red Sea trade routes.

For Egypt, maritime trade is crucial. The Suez Canal, a vital trade route, once brought in $9 billion annually. However, regional instability and competition from Ethiopia’s potential Red Sea access have significantly cut into these revenues.

A Brewing Conflict?

The situation is becoming increasingly tense. Egypt has sent weapons and military supplies to Somalia, while Ethiopia has bolstered its military presence near the Somali border. Both countries accuse each other of destabilizing the region.

Meanwhile, local Somali leaders in regions like Jubaland and Puntland have shown support for Ethiopia, complicating Somalia’s efforts to align with Egypt. These internal divisions could worsen as Ethiopia and Egypt vie for influence in the country.

A Proxy War in the Making?

Some fear that the new AUSSOM mission, set to begin in January, could trigger a larger conflict. What started as a peacekeeping effort might become a battleground for Egypt and Ethiopia to settle their differences.

The stakes are high. With access to the Red Sea, control over the Nile, and regional dominance all on the line, this is more than just a local issue. The Horn of Africa is becoming a key arena for international power struggles, and Somalia is caught in the middle.

As the new year approaches, all eyes will be on Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somalia to see whether diplomacy prevails—or if the region descends into further chaos.