How Bad Intelligence Stopped An All-Out War Between Israel And Hezbollah

In the early days of a recent war, the United States rushed to communicate with Israeli leaders who were meeting to plan a major attack on Hezbollah, a militant group based in Lebanon. The US wanted to warn them that their information might be wrong and that they needed to think carefully about their next steps.

On October 11, Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, managed to send a short note to Ron Dermer, Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister. The note warned against launching a preemptive strike on Hezbollah, telling him that they were making decisions without clear information and were caught up in the chaos of war.

This warning came at a time when Israel was still recovering from a brutal attack by Hamas, another militant group, just days earlier on October 7, which had resulted in the deaths of at least 1,200 Israelis. The possibility of a similar attack from Hezbollah sent panic throughout Israel, especially when reports surfaced about Hezbollah paragliders f...