In the early days of a recent war, the United States rushed to communicate with Israeli leaders who were meeting to plan a major attack on Hezbollah, a militant group based in Lebanon. The US wanted to warn them that their information might be wrong and that they needed to think carefully about their next steps.
On October 11, Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, managed to send a short note to Ron Dermer, Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister. The note warned against launching a preemptive strike on Hezbollah, telling him that they were making decisions without clear information and were caught up in the chaos of war.
This warning came at a time when Israel was still recovering from a brutal attack by Hamas, another militant group, just days earlier on October 7, which had resulted in the deaths of at least 1,200 Israelis. The possibility of a similar attack from Hezbollah sent panic throughout Israel, especially when reports surfaced about Hezbollah paragliders flying across the border and firing shots at a funeral.
As fear spread, more than 2 million Israelis were sent to shelters because of false alarms about incoming drone attacks from Lebanon. Reports claimed that 15 to 20 drones had crossed into Israeli airspace, but the CIA and US military could not confirm these claims.
The Israeli cabinet was ready to approve a strike on Hezbollah, but Jake Sullivan’s note reached Dermer just in time. The note advised, “You’re not making rational decisions. You’re acting in the fog of war on the basis of bad intelligence.” After receiving this warning, the cabinet decided not to go through with the attack about 45 minutes later, possibly preventing a major escalation in the conflict.
Additionally, there were some intriguing conversations happening behind the scenes. During a meeting on January 8, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken talked with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who mentioned that he didn’t personally care about the Palestinian issue. However, he acknowledged that it was important to his people, saying, “Seventy percent of my population is younger than me… For most of them, they never really knew much about the Palestinian issue.”
MBS expressed his concerns about the ongoing conflict and its impact on his people, emphasizing the need for a meaningful response. This conversation highlighted the complex dynamics in the region, especially regarding potential normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Meanwhile, in a lighter yet revealing moment, there was an amusing story about Prime Minister Netanyahu during a visit from Blinken. When they tried to make a copy of an important agreement, Netanyahu struggled with the copy machine, repeatedly pressing buttons without success. This small moment seemed to symbolize the larger challenges and confusion faced by leaders in such critical times.
Overall, this episode not only illustrated the high-stakes decisions being made during the war but also underscored the tension and complexity of international relations in the Middle East.
