The G7 summit, currently unfolding at Borgo Egnazia in Italy, is convened amidst a backdrop of political turmoil. With leaders like Macron, Trudeau, and Biden facing electoral challenges, and far-right movements gaining ground, the summit’s efficacy hangs in the balance.
The democratic world desperately needs the G7 to show strong leadership this week, as the crisis in Ukraine is now into its third year and far-right parties are burning up the power centers of Europe and the Middle East.
Go ahead and dream.
The G7 summit, taking place at the coastal resort of Borgo Egnazia in southern Italy, is possibly the weakest assembly of leaders the club has assembled in recent memory. The majority of attendees are either holding tightly to power, disillusioned after years in office, or preoccupied with elections or domestic difficulties.
Emmanuel Macron of France and Rishi Sunak of Britain are engaged in hurried election campaigns as a last resort to turn around their declining political fortunes.
In the European Parliament election held last weekend, Olaf Scholz of Germany was humiliated by far-right nationalists and may soon be removed from office himself.
Canada’s nine-year prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has been candid about his desire to leave his “crazy” position.
Ahead of a leadership competition later this year, Fumio Kishida of Japan is experiencing his lowest personal ratings to date.
And Joe Biden comes next.
Hunter, the 81-year-old son of the US president, was found guilty of firearms charges on Tuesday, just two weeks before his father’s first pivotal debate with a resurgent Donald Trump in a race the Democrat is quite likely to lose.
“With the exception of Meloni, the leaders at the G7 summit are all pretty weak,” stated Ivo Daalder, the former ambassador of the United States to NATO under President Barack Obama. “Trudeau is probably not going to win the next election. Biden has a tough election race. Scholz is weakened. Macron is weakened. Sunak is a ‘dead man walking,’ and Kishida has serious issues at home as well.”
Tolkien fan
Giorgia Meloni of Italy, however, is unstoppable in her victories.
This Sunday’s European election saw the pugnacious, folksy Tolkien enthusiast from a working-class Rome neighborhood raise her party’s popular share of the vote, two years after she was elected as the head of the far-right Brothers of Italy party. She is now in a position to significantly influence how EU policy is shaped in Brussels moving forward.
Meloni, though, does not command a superpower. Italy, the ninth-largest economy in the world, has limited influence on the global scene.
Under the direction of Italy, representatives from Europe and the United States have been attempting for months to resolve their differences in order to unveil a G7 plan that would use Russian assets that have been frozen in Western banks to give a sizable loan to Ukraine.
However, there is still no indication of a settlement on the eve of the summit. Rather, a U.S. proposal for financing burden sharing is causing European officials to become visibly angry, viewing it as excessively biased and posing a huge risk to the EU.
Ukraine really needs the money as it is still fighting against Russia’s invasion.
Should Puglia be unable to approve the loan plan, the negotiations run the potential of continuing far into the summer and dangerously near to the U.S. election in November. Few European officials believe that Trump, should he win, will be a trustworthy friend in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, a presidential campaign that is about to reach a turning point that could reshape democracy will not be an advantageous time to negotiate multilateral agreements with the United States.
A G7 agreement is not any more likely as a result. All the men seated around the summit table have good reason to be distracted by domestic issues, but none more so than the president of France, who is deeply embroiled in an unexpected election campaign of his own making. Macron will find it extremely difficult to consent to the exploitation of Russian assets before his election, according to Daalder.
Because they believe Macron is now so poisonous that he would lead them to electoral disaster, even his own party colleagues don’t want his face to appear on their campaign posters or even hear him speak on the radio.
The dean
Trudeau had dreamed of leading the G7 as its “dean” from Canada. Trudeau’s administration maintains that the G7 operates “extremely effectively” in spite of global upheavals, with a senior Canadian official stating: “I don’t think the band is on the verge of breaking up.”
But with the upcoming Canadian election, Trudeau’s time may be running out. It is currently largely anticipated that he will be soundly defeated by his primary opponent, fiery Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
In answer to a reporter’s inquiry regarding the rise of the right in France, Trudeau stated on Monday in Quebec City, “We have seen a rise of populist, right-wing forces in just about every democracy.” “It is of concern to see political parties choosing to instrumentalize anger, fear, division, anxiety.”
After 14 turbulent years in power, Sunak’s Conservative Party is facing a historic defeat in the United Kingdom. Whatever Sunak says in Puglia this week is sure to elicit polite smiles, as polls suggest that opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer will win a landslide on the left in the July 4 election.
Amid an impending election and negative polling, Biden is also traveling to Italy. With no assurances that he will be in government to carry on his huge promises to the electorate about what a second term could bring, he is forced to make them.
The majority of European governments are more worried about Trump’s potential return to upend the global order than they are about Biden.
If the leaders are unable to reach a consensus about financing for Ukraine, the summit presents a chance for their host, at the very least.
Meloni’s moment
Italian sources said that Meloni will utilize the summit to boost Italy’s interests, speaking like others on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive subjects. She will also hold discussions with EU leaders about who should hold the top positions within the bloc, such as Ursula von der Leyen’s possible reappointment as president of the European Commission. Von der Leyen needs the support of EU leaders like Meloni as well as a majority in the recently elected Parliament in order to win a second term.
“We have emerged as the government most strengthened, going against the trend,” Meloni told RTL radio on Monday. “Among the governments of big European countries, we are certainly the strongest. I don’t intend to use this result for myself but to use each vote for the center-right to get results for Italians.”
Africa, migration, and the Mediterranean are among the areas of strategic relevance for Italy that are covered in the agenda that Meloni has set for the summit. Her team wants to make agreements with African nations to stop migration, and her administration wants to use investments in African infrastructure to lessen the allure of mass migration to Europe.
Giovanni Orsina, a political history professor at Rome’s Luiss University, predicted that Meloni would gain support for her causes as a result of her election victory. “With a G7 led by Italy and taking place in Italy, Meloni can enter with all her political strength.”
Orsina stated that Meloni is “certainly very strong now” and that “if she is skillful she can end up with an important international success, managing to get the issues important to her on the agenda.” Rome’s influence is restricted in comparison to major G7 nations like the U.S.
“Not many leaders are able to gain votes after two years governing.”
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