On Friday, the presidents of Russia and Belarus met in Minsk and signed new security agreements. After the ceremony, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had a bold question for Russian President Vladimir Putin: Could Belarus get access to Russia’s newest and most powerful Oreshnik missiles?
Putin’s answer? Yes—but not just yet. These cutting-edge missiles, capable of traveling at hypersonic speeds of up to Mach 10 (that’s ten times the speed of sound!), will only be ready for deployment in Belarus by the second half of 2025. Until then, there’s work to be done to make this deal a reality.
So, why are these missiles such a big deal?
What Makes the Oreshnik Missiles Special?
The Oreshnik missiles are part of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces and represent a significant leap in military technology. Not only can they hit targets at unbelievable speeds, but they can also carry a range of deadly warheads, including non-nuclear, high-precision, or potentially nuclear ones. These weapons are designed to hit critical targets with unmatched precision, giving Russia and its allies a significant advantage on the battlefield.
Belarus is no stranger to Russian military support—nuclear weapons were already stationed there earlier this year as part of the countries’ Union State partnership. But the arrival of Oreshnik missiles would mark a significant step up in military capabilities for Belarus and a dramatic shift in the region’s balance of power.
The Deal Behind the Deployment
Several intriguing details about the missile deal have emerged:
- Belarus Asked for Them: The decision to deploy the missiles was made at Belarus’ request, showing how closely aligned the two nations are when it comes to defense.
- Old Infrastructure, New Weapons: The missiles will be stationed using Soviet-era infrastructure. However, there are concerns about whether these old facilities are up to the task. Some upgrades might be necessary, but how much this will cost remains unclear.
- Who Controls the Missiles?: Even though the missiles will be deployed in Belarus, it looks like Russia will maintain ultimate control over them. Belarus might have some say in how they’re used, but final decisions will likely rest with Moscow.
- The Bigger Picture: The deployment could also be Russia’s way of sending a message to the West. By planning the deployment for 2025, Russia might be signaling to a potential Trump administration in the U.S. that it’s open to discussions—if America wants to talk, they’d better act fast.
Challenges Ahead
While the deployment sounds like a straightforward power move, there are a few technical and logistical hurdles. For example, integrating these missiles into Belarus’ existing systems could be tricky, and questions remain about how the two countries will coordinate their use.
Another challenge is balancing the missiles’ power and range. As South Korea has experienced with its own missile programs, there’s often a trade-off between how far a missile can go and how destructive its warhead can be.
Why Does This Matter?
For NATO and its allies, the deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus raises serious concerns. Hypersonic missiles are incredibly difficult to defend against, and having them stationed so close to Europe could shift the entire region’s security dynamics.
But for Belarus, the deal could be a game-changer. It strengthens their ties with Russia and enhances their strategic importance, making them a key player in the region’s defense landscape.
What’s Next?
With the missiles not expected to arrive until 2025, there’s still time for diplomacy—or for tensions to escalate further. Whether this deployment marks the start of a new Cold War-style arms race or a push for dialogue remains to be seen.
For now, one thing is clear: the Oreshnik missiles are a game-changing weapon, and their arrival in Belarus could mark a turning point in global security. Will the world be ready when they arrive? Only time will tell.
