Satellite images have surfaced revealing the aftermath of Iran’s missile attack on Israel’s Nevatim Air Base, raising questions about what really happened. While Iran claims to have caused major destruction, including the annihilation of Israel’s prized F-35 stealth fighters, the truth seems far less dramatic.
The Missile Attack: What Happened?
On October 1, Iran launched around 180 ballistic missiles at key Israeli military targets, including the Mossad headquarters, air defense systems, and two critical air bases—Nevatim and Tel Nof. This was no ordinary missile strike. These missiles were of advanced design, and unlike previous attacks, they managed to overwhelm Israel’s highly advanced missile defense system.
Satellite images from Nevatim Air Base, where Israel stores its F-35I Adir stealth fighters, electronic warfare planes, and transport aircraft, show some damage—but far from what Iran claimed. While the missile barrage was larger and more intense than a similar attack in April, which saw only a few missiles make it through, this time many more hit the ground. However, most of the damage appears minor.
What Do The Satellite Images Show?
Experts, like Decker Eveleth from the Center for Naval Analyses (CAN), have analyzed satellite images of Nevatim Air Base. They discovered around 33 impact craters, though clouds may be hiding more. The total number of missile hits is likely closer to 40. But what’s surprising is how little damage was caused.
Most of the missiles hit areas like taxiways, not vital buildings or aircraft hangars. There were some hits near revetments (fortified aircraft parking areas) and a few hangars, with one hangar being significantly damaged. Yet, this isn’t the catastrophic strike Iran boasted about.
Iran’s Bold Claims vs. Reality
Iran claimed to have destroyed 20 of Israel’s highly prized F-35I Adir stealth fighters. But the satellite images tell a different story. While some craters were found near the shelters housing these jets, there’s no solid evidence that the planes were destroyed. In fact, Israel claims its air operations were not affected, suggesting that most of the aircraft, especially the F-35s, were likely airborne before the missiles hit.
It’s almost certain that Israel scrambled these aircraft before the attack, given that many Israeli refueling planes were seen flying off the coast during the strikes. This suggests the F-35s were prioritized to avoid any risk of destruction on the ground. However, not all jets can be moved quickly—some are always undergoing repairs or maintenance, meaning a portion of the fleet must have stayed on the base.
What Was Iran Targeting?
It’s still unclear what Iran was aiming for at Nevatim Air Base. Some missile impacts were grouped near aircraft shelters, suggesting these were targeted. But the accuracy wasn’t good enough to cause serious damage. A few missiles did hit buildings, including a refueling aircraft hangar and a support building on the southern side of the base. However, most of the missiles missed key targets.
Iran’s ballistic missiles are capable of being quite accurate, but hitting specific targets from such long distances is extremely challenging. So, while efforts to target precise spots around the base were made, the results were underwhelming.
Israel’s Defense: Did It Fail?
One of the most significant takeaways from this attack is that Israel’s missile defense system was overwhelmed. Iran’s use of so many missiles in a short time seems to have been an attempt to overload Israel’s defenses, forcing them to let some missiles through. But even though many missiles hit the base, the damage was much less than Iran claimed.
It’s possible that Israel employed other defense tactics like electronic warfare to throw off the missiles’ accuracy. Disrupting GPS signals, for example, could have helped reduce the damage.
What This Means for Israel and Iran
For Israel, the attack was a wake-up call. While the missile barrage didn’t achieve the level of destruction Iran boasted, it showed that Iran has the capability to launch a large-scale attack that can breach Israel’s defenses. If those missiles had targeted civilian areas or infrastructure, the outcome could have been far more devastating.
On the other hand, Iran has proven that it can strike deep into Israeli territory. This attack provides them with valuable data on how their missiles performed and what they need to improve. As they continue to develop their missile arsenal, each strike gives them more information to refine their technology.
The Bigger Picture: What’s Next?
The tension between Israel and Iran is only escalating. Israel is likely preparing to retaliate, while Iran has threatened to strike Israel’s critical infrastructure if they do. Another missile barrage could happen soon, and next time, the stakes may be even higher.
While Israel might have dodged a bullet this time, the threat of more advanced and accurate missiles from Iran is growing. Both sides are on high alert, knowing that any misstep could lead to a full-blown conflict. For now, the world waits and watches as the shadow of war looms over the Middle East.
