On Saturday, a 4.5-magnitude earthquake shook Iran’s Semnan province, leading many to wonder if it was actually a sign that Iran tested a nuclear weapon for the first time. Usually, a seismic event like this is just an earthquake, but people on social media are suggesting that it could have been an underground nuclear test. This speculation comes amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel, especially after recent threats from Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities.
According to sources from Iran who spoke to The Cradle, there is serious discussion among officials about whether a nuclear test actually took place. In September, sources from Syria warned that Iran might be trying to develop the capability to create nuclear weapons in response to Israel’s recent actions, including the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Adding to the drama, on October 1, Iran launched at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, damaging three airbases. This attack followed the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforushan just a few days earlier. Now, Iran is bracing for a possible retaliation from Israel.
Just days before the earthquake, a report from the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank in the United States, raised alarms by stating that Iran could produce nuclear weapons much faster than previously thought. The report highlighted a claim made by a senior Iranian lawmaker in April 2024, stating there’s only a “one-week gap” from when Iran decides to test a nuclear bomb to when it could actually do it.
In May, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, hinted that Iran might have to rethink its nuclear plans. Until now, Iran claimed it was only using nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. However, Kharrazi stated that if Iran’s existence is threatened, it might have no choice but to change its military approach. This change could mean moving towards developing nuclear weapons.
In July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken supported these concerns, suggesting that Iran might only be one or two weeks away from being able to produce the materials needed for a nuclear weapon, rather than the previously estimated year.
According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has significantly increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity between May and August 2024. This level of enrichment is very close to the 90% needed to create a nuclear weapon.
Additionally, a report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a think tank linked to Israel, revealed that Iran may have begun a program to build underground nuclear test sites as early as the 2000s. They claimed to have identified a likely location southeast of Semnan where Iran conducted tests related to nuclear explosives.
With rising tensions and these new developments, the situation in Iran is becoming increasingly critical. The world is watching closely to see what happens next.
