Despite sanctions, Russia has surpassed the US as Europe’s primary gas supplier, according to recent data. Efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas have faltered, raising concerns over geopolitical implications and energy security.

The recent sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline only seems to validate this particular “conspiracy theory.” Some of the more cynical elements out there believe that Victoria Nuland and various energy-tied elements in the deep state orchestrated the entire Ukraine war to replace Russia as the primary supplier of European gas.

We have bad news: the battle has been in vain if, as it turns out, its purpose was to switch out one European energy provider for another. Despite the region’s efforts to wean itself off Russian fossil resources since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the FT reports that in May, Europe’s gas imports from Russia again surpassed those from the US for the first time in almost two years.

Even though there were a few isolated events that led to the reversal, it still shows how difficult it will be to further reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas imports, as some eastern European nations continue to rely on gas imports from their neighbor and others actively evade their sanctions to obtain cheaper energy.

“It’s striking to see the market share of Russian gas and [liquefied natural gas] inch higher in Europe after all we have been through, and all the efforts made to decouple and de-risk energy supply,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at consulting firm ICIS. It’s not, and this illustrates how, despite all the talk and bluster, nothing has changed in Europe and Moscow continues to be a major supplier of energy for the continent.

Russia reduced its pipeline gas supplies to Europe after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the region increased its imports of LNG—which is transported on specialized boats and is primarily supplied by the US—in response. As predicted, the US surpassed Russia as Europe’s primary gas provider a few months later in September 2022, and as of 2023, it accounts for about a quarter of the total supply in the region.

However, data from ICIS indicates that last month, 15% of the overall supply to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia came from LNG and gas pipes imported from Russia. According to ICIS data, 14% of the region’s LNG supply came from the US, the lowest amount since August 2022.

The turnaround occurs amid a general increase in Russian LNG shipments into Europe, despite the efforts – and failures – of numerous EU nations to impose restrictions on them.

According to the Financial Times, Russia ceased supplying gas via pipelines that connected it to the northwest of Europe in the middle of 2022, but it is still supplying gas through pipelines that pass through Turkey and Ukraine.

A major US LNG export terminal experienced an outage in May, which had an impact on flows; concurrently, Russia exported additional gas through Turkey in advance of scheduled maintenance in June. Gas storage levels are almost at record highs for this time of year, and demand for gas in Europe is likewise still comparatively low.

Some want to make it appear as though this is an isolated incident and that everything will soon return to normal while Europe pretends to impose stringent sanctions on Russian goods. Marzec-Manser of ICIS is one of them, and she stated that the reversal was “not likely to last” because Russia will be able to send LNG to Asia through the Northern Sea Route in the summer. According to him, this would probably result in less LNG being shipped to Europe, even though LNG production in the US has resumed.

“Russia has limited flexibility to hold on to this share [in Europe] as demand [for gas] rises into next winter, whereas overall US LNG production is only growing with yet more new capacity coming to the global market by the end of the year,” he added.

This year also marks the expiration of the transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, endangering the movement of goods along the route. Naturally, this only indicates that opposition to the sanctions will get louder and that Europe’s division along the pro- and anti-Russian axis will continue.

A senior EU official stated that supplies through the route were currently insufficient to replace the 14 billion cubic meters of Russian gas that currently flowed through Ukraine to the EU annually. In the meantime, the European Commission is supporting efforts to establish an investment plan to expand the capacity of pipelines in the Southern Gas Corridor between the EU and Azerbaijan.

During a visit to Japan this month, EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson stated that she had voiced concerns regarding LNG being diverted from Europe to meet demand in Asia. According to her, Tokyo and Brussels have agreed to explore energy-saving measures and have set up an “early warning system” to monitor LNG supplies.

“The EU is prepared to buffer any negative supply or demand events in global gas markets,” she added. “Our gas storage remains at record high levels [and] our gas demand stabilized at record low levels, down 20% compared with 2021.”

As it happens, Europe’s record-high gas storage can be attributed to Russia.

Recently, GreatGameIndia reported that Italy defies NATO escalation as a European court ruling threatens to cut off Russian gas sooner than expected, affecting Austria’s OMV and potentially devastating Italy’s industrial sector.