A fascinating new report in Nikkei Asia has unearthed and detailed the findings of an elite Chinese state-linked think tank which reports directly to the People’s Liberation Army. Nikkei in the context of examining the timing and motives behind China’s 12-point peace plan said that Chinese military experts are predicting the Russia-Ukraine war will end this summer.
To review, the 12-point plan urged implementation of a ceasefire and the resumption of negotiations toward a permanent peaceful settlement, and was unveiled on the one-year Feb.24 anniversary of the war. But the Nikkei report asserts there’s specific rationale driving Beijing: “The reason for China’s sudden change can be traced back to a report issued two months earlier by a top think tank in Beijing.”
“The Academy of Military Sciences [AMS] reports directly to the People’s Liberation Army,” Nikkei continues. “Although it cannot be found on a map, the institution is located in Beijing’s Haidian district, which itself is home to the ruins of Yuanmingyuan, a palace destroyed by Western armies in the 19th century.”
The report goes on the detail how central and important the AMS is as a military think tank (a kind of ‘Chinese Rand Corporation’ in terms of influence), issuing recommendations directly to the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, which is the PLA’s top decision-making body.
And here’s where the Nikkei report gets most interesting:
In December, the AMS completed a simulation on the Ukraine conflict, resulting in an astonishing finding, according to sources close to the Chinese government. The war will draw to a close around summer 2023, the simulation indicated, with Russia having the upper hand.
Both the Russian and Ukrainian economies would be too exhausted to sustain the war past the summer, the report said.
It is possible that the results were skewed in favor of Russia to please China’s Moscow-leaning leadership. But coincidentally, the $45 billion aid package passed last December in the U.S. is set to expire this summer too.
If you’re curious to delve deeper into the topic, read more about it here.
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