For the first time in over 40 years, China has launched a powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean. This type of missile can travel thousands of miles, capable of reaching far-off countries, and the move has caught the world’s attention—especially the United States and its allies. Though China says it was just a training exercise, the implications are much larger and could signal the beginning of more frequent missile tests in open waters.

Why This Is a Big Deal
The last time China fired an ICBM into the Pacific was in 1980. Since then, most of its missile tests have happened on land, deep within the country’s borders. While China has launched shorter-range missiles into the sea over the years, this open-ocean ICBM test is a bold move. It suggests that China is not only growing its nuclear arsenal but also becoming more confident in showing off its capabilities.

Where Did the Missile Go?
The missile was launched from Hainan Island, a strategic spot in the South China Sea. It traveled about 7,145 miles (11,500 kilometers) and landed near French Polynesia, just outside France’s economic zone in the Pacific. The missile’s path snaked between Taiwan and the Philippines, two key U.S. allies in the region. It’s worth noting that the U.S. had an Air Force plane in the area, specifically designed to gather information about missile launches.
1/x#China announced that they test-fired an #ICBM into the central #Pacific this morning (25 Sep) at 00:44 UTC.
— Dr Marco Langbroek (@Marco_Langbroek) September 25, 2024
From Navigational Warnings and NOTAM's, it was fired from Hainan with a ~11 700 km range and RV impact near 10.4 S, 146.5 W.@nukestrat @planet4589 @wslafoy @nktpnd pic.twitter.com/WnhcxNiLxQ
What Type of Missile Was It?
While China hasn’t revealed the exact missile used, experts believe it was likely a road-mobile missile like the DF-31 or DF-41. These types of missiles are mounted on trucks, making them easier to move and launch from different locations. China has been building more missile silos recently, but those are further inland, so a road-mobile missile makes the most sense for this launch.
4/x
— Dr Marco Langbroek (@Marco_Langbroek) September 25, 2024
Approximate 3D flightpath (exact launch site on Hainan is unknown for now) pic.twitter.com/dmTkrJSmgQ
It is unclear if 🇫🇷@francediplo and 🇵🇫 @presidencepf were contacted in advance (beyond the NOTAM). The landing zone of the Chinese's reentry vehicle is right next to the French Polynesian EEZ. This is clearly problematic and possibly part of China's signaling. pic.twitter.com/1jC7VVqj0I
— Sébastien Philippe (@seb6philippe) September 25, 2024
A Show of Strength or Training?
China says this launch was part of their regular “annual training plan.” However, launching an ICBM into the Pacific isn’t just routine—especially for a country that hasn’t done so in decades. The timing is interesting, coming right after U.S. President Joe Biden emphasized the need for responsible competition with China in his speech to the United Nations. The message from China seems clear: they are ready to showcase their growing military might and are not afraid to do so in full view of the world.

The Bigger Picture: China’s Expanding Nuclear Arsenal
China’s nuclear capabilities have been growing at an astonishing rate. Between 2020 and 2023, their number of nuclear warheads more than doubled, and they’re expected to have around 1,500 warheads by 2035. The U.S. government has become increasingly concerned about China’s rapid expansion, with a recent report focusing on the country’s military buildup. China’s closer ties with Russia, particularly since the war in Ukraine, have only heightened these concerns.
Especially considering the ICBM they launched is almost certainly launched from a mobile launcher. By doing it out at Hainan and launching from a potentially unfamiliar launch location the missile crew may be unfamiliar with you can identify potential pitfalls in the process.
— Decker Eveleth (@dex_eve) September 25, 2024
What Could Happen Next?
This launch might be just the beginning of more frequent missile tests in the Pacific. China has hinted that these tests could become part of their regular military drills, much like how the U.S. and other nuclear powers conduct similar tests. These exercises are not just for training but also to send a message to other countries: China is a global power, and its military strength is something to be reckoned with.
China has confirmed the successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean, available public data mapped shows danger zones almost as close as 90-km to the Philippines were announced by China as a part of this test pic.twitter.com/ZqovtlQhEu
— Damien Symon (@detresfa_) September 25, 2024
Tensions in the Pacific
China’s growing military presence is causing friction with many countries, especially those in the Pacific. The missile’s path, passing near Taiwan and the Philippines, underscores the ongoing territorial disputes and the potential for conflict in the region. Taiwan is a particularly sensitive issue for China, which considers it a part of its territory, even though it operates as a separate country with strong U.S. support.

Domestic Significance
The missile launch may also be aimed at showing strength within China. In 2023, China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, which handles the country’s nuclear missiles, was rocked by corruption scandals. The successful launch could be a way to restore confidence in this military branch.
What Does This Mean for the World?
China’s missile test sends a clear message: its nuclear arsenal is growing, and so is its willingness to demonstrate that power. As China’s missile capabilities continue to expand, the world will be watching closely to see how these developments affect the already delicate balance of power in the Pacific and beyond.