Canada Set To Dominate Global Uranium Market

According to the World Nuclear Association, Canada is expected to surpass Kazakhstan as the world’s greatest producer of uranium and dominate the global uranium market as additional mines come online in the next years.

For many years, Canada was the world’s leading producer of uranium, but in 2009, Kazakhstan overthrew it. In 2022, Canada ranked second globally, contributing 15% of the total output. With 27% of all uranium deliveries to the US in 2023, Canada rose to the top of the list of suppliers. The ‘Next AI Trade’ theme (described for pro-subs) has driven up uranium prices over the last few years, and Canada’s uranium mining expansion may allow it to recover the top rank.

According to a recent Bloomberg study, Canada’s uranium mining boom is concentrated in the Saskatchewan province:

What Saskatchewan has, though, is uranium. Lots of uranium. The bedrock is so loaded with it that the area around just one stretch of the lake, it is believed, could generate enough nuclear energy to power more than 40 million homes for a quarter century. 

In the region rich in commodities, Cameco and Cameco/Orano run several working mines and several more are being developed.

As additional mines come online in the next years, Canada is expected to surpass Kazakhstan as the world’s greatest producer of uranium, according to the World Nuclear Association.

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Source: Bloomberg

In order to meet Canada’s net-zero emissions targets, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made a drastic U-turn and is now in favor of nuclear power. After years of promises to shift the economy away from the exploitation of commodities, this is a significant reversal.

According to Goldman’s cumulative electricity growth forecast, major utilities’ revised higher estimations are likely to cause electricity growth to spike from 2.6% to 4.7% over the next five years.

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Source: NERC – 2022 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (as of December 2022). Grid Strategies – The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over (as of December 2023).

Earlier this year, Wall Street officially joined the nuclear power bandwagon. Everyone is embracing the nuclear energy notion of powering up America, from Goldman to BlackRock.

The World Nuclear Association predicts that as more reactors come online in the 2030s, the world’s uranium supply shortfall will skyrocket due to this heated trend.

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Source: Bloomberg

Over the past five years, uranium prices have surged 233%, surpassing those of silver, gold, copper, and lithium due to a tightening supply and increased demand.

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Source: Bloomberg

Lawson Winder of BofA recently sent a transcript of a panel discussion featuring some of the leading uranium executives in the world to clients…

The main takeaway: “Many institutions are still learning the role of uranium in the energy transition, suggesting upside to money in the space.”

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These days, the Eastern Hemisphere—primarily China and India—is seeing the greatest increase in nuclear power. However, with the recent historic activation of the Palisades nuclear facility in Michigan, a major shift in US policy regarding atomic power is under place, as the Biden administration is finally taking nuclear power seriously.

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Source: Bloomberg

“Today, there are 61 nuclear power plants under construction globally. Another 90 or so are in the planning stage and more than 300 have been proposed,” Bloomberg said. 

Ninety-three nuclear power reactors provide 19% of the electricity used in the US. The number will rise in the upcoming years when more retired reactors are revived.

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Source: Bloomberg

The US only owns 9.5% of the world’s enrichment capacity, compared to roughly 46% controlled by Russia. The United States’ dependence on Russian uranium poses a significant issue in a world that is rapidly developing into a hazardous multipolar state.

The Canadian mining boom suggests that the nation may soon retake the top rank globally in uranium production, so ending the United States’ reliance on Russian uranium.

Recently, GreatGameIndia reported that statistics from the US Energy Information Administration revealed how much the US depends on Russian uranium, with it accounting for nearly 25%.

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