The U.S. presidential election is finally over, and the results are in: Republican candidate Donald Trump has won. Now, many are curious about what Trump’s victory will mean for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of the world. Russia, in particular, is watching closely, wondering how Trump’s administration might affect Ukraine’s military partnerships and influence the ongoing conflict.
Trump’s Big Campaign Promise
During his campaign, Trump made a surprising promise: if elected, he claimed he could end the war in Ukraine within just 24 hours—even before he officially takes office on January 20. Although many see this as bold pre-election talk, Trump is known for making big statements. For example, back in 2019, he vowed to “solve the problem” with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. But despite a high-profile meeting in Hanoi, they failed to reach an agreement, leaving a lingering question: can Trump really tackle something as complex as the Ukraine conflict?
The Countdown to January 20
Trump’s plan to end the Ukraine war in such a short time seems unlikely for a big reason: he won’t actually have any official power until noon on January 20, when he takes office and forms his new administration. Until then, President Joe Biden is still in charge, including in the realm of foreign policy. So, while Trump may have ambitious ideas, he’ll have to wait until he’s officially in the Oval Office to start acting on them.
Can the Ukraine Conflict Really End?
Ending the conflict is technically possible, but the question is how and on what terms. For the U.S. and its allies, concluding the war on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terms—such as keeping Ukraine out of alliances, recognizing Russia’s control of disputed regions, and demilitarizing Ukraine—would feel like a defeat. After years of supporting Ukraine with weapons, funds, and political backing, the West is reluctant to see the war end on terms that favor Moscow. Given the memory of America’s hasty exit from Afghanistan, many feel that another perceived setback could harm the U.S.’s image on the world stage.
If Trump wants to make peace without making it seem like Russia “won,” he’ll have to find a way for both sides to feel satisfied. Russia would need to see some gains, while Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence would have to be recognized. Ideally, Kiev itself would need to initiate a peace proposal, making it appear that Ukraine, not the U.S., is choosing to end the fight.
The Power Moves Trump Could Make
Once in office, Trump would have significant leverage. He could ramp up economic sanctions to put pressure on Russia, or he could cut military support for Ukraine, forcing Kiev to negotiate. By dialing down weapon supplies, Trump could limit Ukraine’s military options, which could push them closer to peace talks. However, the biggest challenge will be getting Russia to agree to a balanced deal, especially if they’re winning on the battlefield.
The Stakes for Trump and the World
With his election, Trump faces a delicate balancing act. To fulfill his campaign promises, he’ll need to resolve contradictions and find a compromise that avoids making the West look defeated, Russia look victorious, and Ukraine look powerless. It’s a complicated puzzle, and one that might take a lot longer than 24 hours to solve. Trump’s willingness to go against the norm might make this situation even more unpredictable, keeping Russia, Ukraine, and the rest of the world guessing about what happens next.
