The Arakan Army’s capture of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border is a development with far-reaching consequences, potentially sparking a crisis for Bangladesh and altering regional dynamics in South Asia. This event, though overlooked amidst global news, holds major implications for security, geopolitics, and international alliances.
A Significant Victory for the Arakan Army
The Arakan Army (AA), a Buddhist rebel group, has emerged as one of the most powerful and experienced militias in Myanmar’s ongoing civil war. Last week, they seized control of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border—the first frontier to fall to rebel forces since the conflict escalated in early 2021. This marks a significant win for the AA and highlights their growing strength against Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw.
Why does this matter? The AA’s victory not only changes the power dynamics in the region but also poses a direct security challenge to Bangladesh. For years, the AA has accused Bangladesh of supporting Rohingya Muslim militants against Buddhists in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, which the AA considers their homeland, Arakan. These tensions, rooted in religious and ethnic divides, make the border conflict a dangerous “clash of civilizations.”
Threats to Bangladesh’s Security
The Bangladesh Armed Forces (BAF) are already stretched thin, focusing on what they see as a looming threat from neighboring India. With the AA now in control of the border, there’s a real possibility of cross-border strikes targeting alleged Rohingya militant camps within Bangladesh. This could escalate into a full-blown security crisis, forcing Dhaka to divert resources and attention from other priorities.
Moreover, the AA’s control over the border eliminates any realistic chance of repatriating the Rohingya refugees currently living in Bangladesh. The Rohingya, a Muslim minority originally from Myanmar, have faced brutal crackdowns by the Tatmadaw—acts widely condemned as ethnic cleansing and genocide. With the ultra-nationalist AA now ruling Rakhine State, returning the Rohingya safely is virtually impossible. This unresolved refugee crisis could once again draw international scrutiny and pressure.
Geopolitical Ramifications
The border crisis could also be exploited by various global powers to serve their strategic interests. Bangladesh’s new US-backed government may use this situation as a justification to strengthen military ties with other countries. For instance, Dhaka might seek advanced weapons from China or expand its cooperation with Pakistan, both of which are traditional rivals of India. This could shift the balance of power in South Asia.
On the other hand, any direct conflict between the AA and the BAF could accelerate Bangladesh’s military alignment with the West, particularly the United States. Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had previously hinted that her removal from power was influenced by a Western country—likely the US—after she refused to allow a military base on Bangladeshi soil. A worsening border crisis could pave the way for renewed talks about establishing such a base, under the guise of “self-defense.”
Implications for India
For India, the situation is deeply concerning. The growing instability in Bangladesh’s southern region and the potential for increased Chinese, Pakistani, or US influence could threaten India’s northeastern states. If Bangladesh becomes a hotspot for geopolitical competition, it could lead to new security challenges for New Delhi, jeopardizing its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
The Bigger Picture
The Arakan Army’s border capture may seem like a localized event, but it’s a spark that could ignite larger regional and global conflicts. With Myanmar’s civil war continuing, Bangladesh’s internal struggles, and global powers vying for influence, this crisis could reshape South Asia’s future.
The world should pay attention to this overlooked development, as the consequences of inaction or miscalculation could be profound. As events unfold, the region’s stability hangs in the balance, and the decisions made by Bangladesh, India, and other stakeholders will determine whether this border conflict becomes a catalyst for peace or a prelude to greater turmoil.
