In a gripping letter published by the British medical journal Lancet (view below) on July 5, three public health experts reveal that the civilian death toll from Israel’s war in Gaza could be up to 15 times higher than the official count. They highlight the devastating impact of destroyed infrastructure, hospitals, and food supplies, which makes tracking the dead nearly impossible. The experts estimate that for every direct death from the conflict, four more people die indirectly. This could mean a staggering death toll of 186,000 or more, painting a dire picture of the true cost of the war.
Since October 2023, the Gaza Strip has seen a devastating conflict resulting in over 37,000 deaths, with many more likely buried in the rubble or dying from indirect causes like disease and starvation. The Gaza Health Ministry’s data, despite being contested, is backed by various independent analyses and organizations. The ongoing destruction has severely hampered data collection, making the true death toll hard to determine but likely much higher. The conflict’s impact is expected to lead to an estimated total of up to 186,000 deaths, highlighting the urgent need for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid to prevent further catastrophe.
As reported by The Lancet, according to the Gaza Health Ministry and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 37,396 persons had been killed in the Gaza Strip since Hamas’ onslaught and Israeli invasion in October 2023 as of June 19, 2024. The Israeli authorities have questioned the Ministry’s estimates, which have been confirmed as accurate by Israeli intelligence services, the UN, and WHO. These findings are corroborated by an independent analysis comparing variations in the number of deaths of UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) staff to those reported by the Ministry, which found charges of data manipulation improbable.
The Gaza Health Ministry is finding it increasingly difficult to collect data as most of the infrastructure has been destroyed. The Ministry has had to supplement its customary reporting, which is based on persons dying in its hospitals or being brought in dead, with data from credible media sources and first responders. This alteration degraded the previously recorded detailed data. As a result, the Gaza Health Ministry now separately publishes the number of unidentified bodies from the total death toll. As of May 10, 2024, 30% of the 35,091 deaths remained unidentified.
Some politicians and news organizations have taken advantage of this change, which was intended to increase data quality, to weaken the data’s credibility. However, the recorded death toll is likely to be underestimated. The non-governmental organization Airwars conducts extensive assessments of occurrences in the Gaza Strip and frequently discovers that not all names of identified casualties are included in the Ministry’s list.6 The UN believes that by February 29, 2024, 35% of buildings in the Gaza Strip had been demolished, implying a significant number of bodies buried in the rubble, estimated at over 10,000.
Armed conflicts have indirect health consequences that go beyond the direct harm caused by violence. Even if the dispute is resolved promptly, numerous indirect deaths will occur in the ensuing months and years due to reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be high due to the intensity of the conflict, the destruction of healthcare infrastructure, severe shortages of food, water, and shelter, the population’s inability to flee to safe places, and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the few humanitarian organizations still active in the Gaza Strip.
In recent battles, indirect casualties have ranged from three to fifteen times the number of direct deaths. Based on a reasonable estimate of four indirect deaths for every direct death, the current battle in Gaza could result in up to 186,000 or more deaths. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2,375,259, this equates to 7.9% of the entire population in the Gaza Strip. A February 7, 2024 assessment indicated that without a truce, there would be between 58,260 deaths (without an outbreak or escalation) and 85,750 deaths (if both occurred) by August 6, 2024. The direct death toll was 28,000.
An immediate and urgent truce in the Gaza Strip is required, along with measures to facilitate the transfer of medical supplies, food, clean water, and other basic human requirements. At the same time, it is necessary to document the extent and character of suffering in this battle. Documenting the exact scale is critical for guaranteeing historical accountability and recognizing the full cost of the conflict. It’s also a legal obligation. The International Court of Justice’s interim measures in January 2024 order Israel to “take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of the Genocide Convention.” The Gaza Health Ministry is the sole organization that counts the deceased. Furthermore, these data will be critical for post-war rehabilitation, infrastructure restoration, and humanitarian assistance planning.
Recently, GreatGameIndia reported that in a tense escalation, a senior Hezbollah commander named Muhammad Nimah Nasser was killed by an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon.
You can read the report below:
PIIS0140673624011693
2 Responses
Wow.. seems like Israel is hell bent to solve this terrorism issue from Palestine that has been going decades after decades….
The History of the imaginary Palestinian state:
Before Israel there was a British Mandate, not a Palestinian state
Before the British Mandate, it was the Ottoman Empire, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Ottoman Empire Was the Islamic State of the Mamluks of Egypt, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Islamic State of the Mamluks from Egypt, the Arab-Kurdish Empire was the Ayyubid, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Ayyubid Empire was the Frankish and Christian Kingdom of Jerusalem, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Kingdom of Jerusalem was the Umayyad and Fatimid empire, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Umayyad and Fatimid empires, the Byzantine Empire was not a Palestinian state.
Before the Byzantine Empire, there were Sassanids, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Sassanid Empire was the Byzantine Empire, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Byzantine Empire was the Roman Empire, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Roman Empire it was a Hasmonean state, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Hasmonean state was the Seleucid, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Seleucid Empire was the Empire of Alexander, not a Palestinian state.
Before Alexander’s empire it was the Persian Empire, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Persian Empire was the Babylonian Empire, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Babylonian Empire were the kingdoms of Israel and Judah, not a Palestinian state.
Before the kingdoms of Israel and Judah, there was no kingdom of Israel in the kingdom of Israel, not a Palestinian state.
Before the Kingdom of Israel, the theocracy of the twelve tribes of Israel was not a Palestinian state.
Before the theocracy of the twelve tribes of Israel, there was an accumulation of independent Canaanite city-kingdoms, not a Palestinian state.
In fact, in this plot of land kingdoms rose and fell .. But there was never a Palestinian state or a people.!
The Palestinians are Arabs and Arabs came from the Arabian Peninsula, they are indigenous to the Arabian Peninsula .
It is pure propaganda to claim that Arabs are native to Palestine or that the Palestinians are not Arabs.! and why don’t people read about – what is “Sursock Purchase”
Lot of maybe, would be, could be etc etc no concrete information – why do you think that is?? Speculation by the Europeans is much better than accepting the reality that there are far less causalities than what the Hamas war machine want the world to think. I believe it was one of the UN reports that said they could not confirm the numbers that Hamas and the Europeans have put out there. The reality is that Israel has targeted assassinations that avoid or minimize collateral damage than the Hamas terrorist that surround themselves with innocents and prevent them from evacuating to safer confines. Hamas is a terrorist organization and anyone that sympathizes with them or supports them or actively collaborates with them need to be eliminated because they CHOSE to be there despite the warnings given by the IDF. I expected GGI to be neutral in their reporting but once again they have become part of the MSM reporting Hamas BS and speculated numbers. There is enough and more food to feed the populace but Hamas would rather scour it away into their tunnels or dump it on the street and whine about starvation. If it was up to me the good would have gone to eradicate in part starvation elimination efforts in the grateful African continent rather than the ingrates in Gaza and the Hamas supporters.