From October 22 to 24, 2024, the city of Kazan in Russia will host the 16th annual BRICS Summit. This summit is particularly important because it comes at a time when many countries are eager to join the group, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. After its largest expansion ever last year, the question of whether to let more countries in is at the forefront of discussions.
Why Is Expansion Important?
Many developing nations are looking for alternatives to the Western-dominated systems like the IMF and World Bank, which they feel exclude them. These countries are feeling the pressure of being left out, especially after recent political changes that have made it hard for them to get financial help. For instance, some African nations with new governments have been shut out of US-led financial support. They see BRICS as a promising alternative that could provide the assistance they need.
At this summit, leaders will prioritize the topic of expansion. However, there were disagreements among current members about who should join during last year’s discussions. Each BRICS country has its reasons for wanting more members. Russia, for instance, is keen to invite more friendly nations to strengthen its economy and reduce the impact of US sanctions.
China’s Influence and India’s Caution
China, on the other hand, sees this as an opportunity to boost its power. It wants to create a world order centered around its influence, using BRICS as a way to do that. However, India, which has strong ties with the US, will be careful about being seen as part of an anti-US group. This concern is shared by countries like Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
India is particularly cautious because it has ongoing tensions with China, especially over border disputes. Some Indian experts worry that if China brings in countries like Pakistan, it could undermine India’s influence within BRICS. This situation might even push India to consider leaving the group altogether, especially since it already has relations with these neighboring countries.
Russia’s Challenge
As the host, Russia has a big responsibility to manage these tensions and keep the group from falling apart. While India has its reasons for staying in BRICS—like engaging with Russia and maintaining a neutral stance—the growing presence of countries like Iran could make it seem more like an anti-US bloc.
South Africa has a unique position as it benefits from favorable trade agreements with the US, yet it also has strategic partnerships with Russia and China. However, its military exercises with these nations have drawn criticism from the West, putting it in a delicate situation.
Looking Ahead
The Kazan Summit comes at a time of global uncertainty, with crises like the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. It’s also the first gathering of BRICS after its expansion, which adds to the stakes. For Russia, this summit is an opportunity to show that it still holds significance on the world stage despite Western pressures.
Although there have been predictions of BRICS falling apart, the group has managed to stay united so far. However, this summit will be crucial. One wrong move could lead to its disintegration. The success of the summit will largely depend on how well Russia navigates its relationships with other member countries and addresses the interests of the Global South.
What’s Next?
The outcome of this summit could shape the future of global politics. Will BRICS become a stronger player on the world stage, or will internal conflicts pull it apart? The discussions in Kazan will certainly be closely watched as countries seek new paths in a rapidly changing world.
