Recent Russian drone and missile attacks have devastated Ukraine’s air force, destroying multiple Sukhoi Su-27 fighters and raising serious concerns about the future safety of incoming F-16 jets from Western allies. Despite plans to bolster air defenses and build underground bunkers, the vulnerability of these high-value aircraft remains a critical issue, with Ukrainian lawmakers voicing fears that these new fighters could meet the same grim fate as their predecessors, highlighting a dire need for improved military infrastructure and strategies.
On July 1, a Russian drone saw six Ukrainian Air Force Sukhoi Su-27 jets parked openly on the runway at Mirgorod air base, home to the 831st Tactical Aviation Brigade, located roughly 150 kilometers southwest of the border in central Ukraine.
Seizing the chance, a Russian Iskander ballistic missile was launched, destroying two of the expensive supersonic aircraft and crippling the remaining four.
This incident may be one of the most costly days for Ukraine’s air force since Russia expanded its military activities in February 2022. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Col. Yuri Ignat acknowledged the incident, which was widely reported on Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels.
The Russian Rybar Telegram channel said that the cluster munitions used in the attack destroyed two aircraft and damaged four others.
The assault was lauded by Rybar, who said: “As a result, in one raid, the Russian Armed Forces disabled six combat aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is the best result since the beginning of the Northern Military District.”
“Most likely, the Ukrainian formations also suffered losses in flight and engineering personnel – reports of enemy resources indirectly indicate this,” noted the news outlet.
The next day, July 2, a Russian drone flew above the Ukrainian air base in Poltava, which is just east of Mirgorod and 100 miles from the border. After hours of drone observation, an Iskander missile struck, causing damage to a Ukrainian army Mil Mi-24 gunship helicopter.
Russian Raids Expose Vulnerabilities
Since last fall, Russian raids on Ukrainian sites have increased, causing considerable losses for the Ukrainian Air Force. These strikes have already destroyed two Su-27 fighters, two MiG-29 fighters, a Su-25 attack plane, and potentially a Mi-24 helicopter.
The rising frequency and success of these operations underscore a crucial issue: a lack of effective air defenses, which exposes Ukrainian bases to Russian drone and missile strikes.
According to Ukrainian reports, a Russian drone loitered at the Mirgorod air base for about three hours, gathering intelligence before directing an Iskander missile strike. The Ukrainian Sofa Assault Brigade Telegram channel expressed shock and dismay over the drone’s continued presence.
According to the station, an Orlan-10 drone hovered over the city at a height of roughly five kilometers (three miles) and directed the subsequent missile strikes.
Although the Sofa Assault Brigade disputed the number of planes damaged as claimed by the Russians, it acknowledged the worrisome fact that the drone remained over Mirgorod for an extended amount of time, targeting and documenting the aftermath of the operation.
However, defense expert Vijainder K Thakur, who carefully studies the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggested that the drone involved was most likely the flying-wing Albatros M5.
Thakur stated that Mirgorod is 150 kilometers from the line of control and that the footage appears to have been recorded by a UAV positioned northeast of the facility, with the camera lens oriented toward a Ukrainian-controlled area.
He added, “Assuming an operating height of 30,000 ft, the camera was looking around 35 km into adversary-controlled territory. That would place the UAV around 115 km inside adversary airspace.”
Thakur posed an important question: why didn’t Ukrainian air defenses engage the drone on both days? Thakur speculated that the Russian UAV would have sophisticated radio frequency, and visual, and auditory stealth capabilities, making it difficult to identify and attack.
The Albatros M5, which is outfitted with electro-optical sensors, can transmit data and video footage in real-time, directing aircraft and artillery toward ground targets.
Furthermore, the Albatros may use its sensors to locate hostile air defenses, thus acting as bait to lure enemy fire. Any effort by Ukrainian air defenses to shoot down the UAV may result in rapid reprisal strikes.
The Albatros M5 reconnaissance drone has a wingspan of 3.3 meters and can fly for 4.5 hours, cruising at a maximum altitude of five kilometers with a range of 300 kilometers. It may be transported in a car or carried by one person, and flight preparations take no longer than 10 minutes.
However, Thakur pointed out a fundamental flaw: the Albatros’ electro-optical sensors are inefficient in hazy conditions. The weather was clear over Mirgorod on July 1 and 2 during the Russian strikes.
Could F-16s Meet The Same Fate?
The latest strikes on Ukrainian airfields over two days have caused Ukrainian MPs to voice grave worries about the safety of incoming F-16 fighter jets.
Mariana Bezuhla, a Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s Parliament), addressed these concerns on her Telegram channel, directly targeting Alexander Syrsky, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Bezuhla questioned the paucity of aircraft shelters at Ukrainian airfields, as well as the country’s overall air defense.
“You have not corrected the situation with the safety of our aircraft, with air defense,” Bezuhla added, highlighting the importance of fixing these weaknesses.
She contended that introducing F-16s would not necessarily alter the situation. Instead, they may become another target for Russian strikes. Bezuhla questioned whether the required infrastructure for these Western fighters had been properly constructed.
These worries are based on the brutal realities of the fighting. The destruction of two Su-27s near Mirgorod as a result of Iskander missile strikes exposes Ukraine’s severe losses.
Over the past nine months, Russian forces have destroyed at least five Ukrainian jets on the ground. Ukraine, which is already stretched enough, cannot afford such losses at this critical time.
When the war started in February 2022, the Ukrainian Air Force had approximately 125 jets, including Su-27s, Su-25s, and MiG-29s. However, Oryx analysis acknowledged that 28 months of fierce battle resulted in the loss of around 90 jets.
To compensate for these losses, Ukraine has obtained replacement MiGs and Sukhois from friends and placed them in long-term storage, ensuring the air force’s operational capabilities until the arrival of Western-supplied fighters: 85 Lockheed Martin F-16s and maybe a dozen Dassault Mirage 2000s.
The greatest issue, however, remains the new fighters’ susceptibility to Russian drone and missile assaults if left out in the open.
Ukraine has acknowledged the risk and is apparently preparing for the deployment of F-16s by building underground storage and bunkers at its sites. In addition, some of these jets will be stored at bases abroad for security reasons.
The effectiveness of these preparations will be determined during the next few weeks or months. The outcome of these initiatives will have an impact on Ukraine’s ability to withstand current and future Russian offensives.
Recently, GreatGameIndia reported that amid escalating tensions, Russia launched devastating airstrikes targeting Ukrainian airfields designated to host NATO’s F-16 jets. This strategic move underscores heightened geopolitical stakes and raises international concerns over the intensifying conflict.
