India has remained silent on the growing conflict in the Middle East, choosing not to comment on the recent killings of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and a top Iranian military commander from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). However, experts warn that if the violence continues to escalate, India and the rest of the world could face serious consequences.
Last Friday, Israel assassinated Nasrallah, sparking a new wave of conflict. Tel Aviv responded by bombing areas in Yemen and Lebanon, including central Beirut. Lebanon’s health ministry reported over 100 people killed in these Israeli airstrikes, and in the past two weeks, the death toll has crossed 1,000, with over 6,000 injured.
India’s Delicate Position
Retired Major General Jagatbir Singh, a respected military expert, explained that the Middle East conflict directly affects India, especially when it comes to oil and trade. Yemen has blocked the Red Sea trade route since 2023, hoping to pressure Israel into ending its attacks on Gaza. This blockage has disrupted global shipping and could severely impact India’s economy if it continues, given India’s heavy reliance on oil from the region.
India is walking a fine line. On one side, there’s Iran, which supports Yemen and Hezbollah, and on the other, there are countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with which India has strong economic ties. Adding to the complexity is India’s increasing defense and trade relationship with Israel. With such high stakes, India must carefully navigate its diplomatic relationships to avoid taking sides in a highly volatile situation.
The Risk of Nuclear Tensions
Iran, despite repeatedly stating that nuclear weapons are against its beliefs, is still seen by the West as a near-nuclear power. Retired Major General Singh warns that if Iran feels too threatened by attacks on its allies, it might accelerate its nuclear program. This could make an already unstable situation even more dangerous, as it would drag in more global powers, further increasing tensions across the region.
Former Indian ambassador to several Middle Eastern countries, Talmiz Ahmad, believes that if these conflicts aren’t resolved soon, West Asia will remain unstable for the foreseeable future. This ongoing instability is bad news for India, especially because the Gulf region is critical for its oil supply and the large Indian diaspora living there.
Global Trade at Risk
Israel’s ongoing military actions raise alarms for international trade as well. The Bab el-Mandeb, a key shipping chokepoint that links the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea, is in danger. If this trade route is closed or disrupted, it could drive up shipping costs and insurance rates, which would ripple through the global economy. Ahmad notes that Yemen’s military actions have already rerouted 90% of global shipping away from the Red Sea and through the longer Cape of Good Hope, which increases costs and contributes to inflation worldwide.
Israel, with support from the United States, has ramped up its military operations, hitting targets in Syria and claiming the deaths of militants connected to ISIS and al-Qaeda. But experts believe these strikes serve another purpose: to strengthen Israel’s position in the region and deter retaliation from Iran.
India’s Response So Far
India has consistently supported Israel in its fight against terrorism, but it has also condemned the violence against civilians and called for peace in Gaza. Retired Colonel Rajeev Agarwal, an expert on West Asia, said India’s stance is clear: while it stands by Israel’s right to defend itself, it also believes in the need for an independent Palestinian state and a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Interestingly, India refused to supply artillery shells to Israel during the early stages of its offensive in Gaza, a decision that many regional countries have appreciated. India has preferred to stay neutral, focusing on de-escalation and diplomacy rather than direct involvement.
However, Singh, the retired Major General, raised a critical point: why is there international outrage when India is accused of involvement in the death of a Khalistani separatist, but little reaction when Israel violates Lebanon’s sovereignty? This double standard, he says, is a glaring example of how the West treats conflicts differently depending on who is involved.
What’s Next for India?
As the Middle East continues to spiral into deeper conflict, India finds itself in a tough spot. Its economic interests, especially oil and trade, are deeply tied to this region, but taking sides could backfire. For now, India’s strategy seems to be staying neutral, calling for peace, and focusing on protecting its own interests without getting dragged into the fight. However, if the conflict escalates further, India may have no choice but to take a more active role in trying to bring peace to the region.
India’s silence might seem strategic for now, but the ripple effects of the Middle East conflict could soon force it to make some tough decisions that could shape its role on the global stage.
