The $1 Trillion Question: Inside Nepal’s Historic Agreement With China’s BRI

After years of uncertainty, Nepal has finally joined hands with China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This major agreement was signed during Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s recent visit to Beijing. But what took so long, and why does this matter? Let’s dive in.

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What is the BRI?

The Belt and Road Initiative is China’s ambitious global project to create new trade routes connecting Asia, Europe, Africa, and beyond. Think of it as a modern-day Silk Road with massive infrastructure projects like railways, highways, and power grids. For Nepal, this deal could mean new opportunities for development and better connectivity to the world.

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Chinese and Nepali delegations led by President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli in Beijing on December 3, 2024. ©  FMPRC

A Rocky Start

Nepal had already signed a basic understanding of the BRI back in 2017. So, why did it take seven years to finalize a deal? The delay was mainly about money. China wanted to give Nepal loans for these projects, but Nepal preferred grants. Why? Loans mean debt, and Nepal didn’t want to end up like other countries caught in financial trouble because of similar deals with China.

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Nepal Prime Minister and chairman of CPN-UML (Communist Party of Nepal- Unified Marxist Leninist) KP Sharma Oli (Center) waves to the crowd during a mass gathering in Kathmandu, Nepal, on November 22, 2024. ©  Sanjit Pariyar/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Adding to this, Nepal was cautious about upsetting its neighbor to the south—India. Both India and the U.S. have shown resistance to China’s growing influence in the region.

The Turning Point

Just before Oli’s visit to China in December 2024, Nepal sent a last-minute proposal with a smart compromise. Instead of calling it “loans” or “grants,” they used the term “assistance financing.” This opened the door to funding that could include both concessional loans (low-interest loans) and grants. Both sides agreed, showing flexibility that saved the deal.

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©  Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE)

A Political Balancing Act

Nepal’s political scene has also played a big role in this agreement. The country is run by a coalition of two very different political parties: the left-leaning Nepal Communist Party (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the right-leaning Nepali Congress. While the communist party was always pro-BRI, the Nepali Congress was worried about taking on debt. Despite these differences, both parties came together to back this deal, which was a rare moment of unity in Nepal’s politics.

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A woman walks carrying her baby through the flooded road near the bank of the overflowed Bagmati river following heavy rain in Kathmandu, Nepal on September 28, 2024. As for the report at least 50 people have been confirmed dead across the country due to the devastating flood in the country. ©  Sunil Pradhan/Anadolu via Getty Images

What’s in it for Nepal?

Under the BRI, Nepal has proposed ten major projects. Among them, the most talked about are:

  • The Kerung-Kathmandu Railway: A rail line that could link Nepal to China and even India.
  • The Tokha-Chhahare Tunnel: A highway project that would make travel easier and faster.
  • The Kerung-Rasuwagadhi Transmission Line: An energy project to boost Nepal’s power supply.

Experts believe these projects could be game-changers, turning Nepal into a vital trade hub between India and China. Plus, better infrastructure could mean a stronger economy for Nepal.

Challenges Ahead

While the deal is a big win, it’s not without challenges. Nepal has to carefully navigate its relationships with China, India, and the U.S. China’s growing influence has already sparked concern in Washington and New Delhi, making Nepal a key player in a geopolitical tug-of-war.

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A long exposure shot illuminates the mountain ranges surrounding Kathmandu Valley as seen from a hill station in Kathmandu, Nepal, on December 4, 2024. ©  Subaas Shrestha/NurPhoto via Getty Images

There’s also the risk of debt. Even with concessional loans, Nepal must ensure it doesn’t borrow more than it can repay. Some worry that the BRI could compromise Nepal’s independence, but others see it as an opportunity to grow while staying neutral.

A New Era for Nepal-China Relations

China’s involvement in Nepal is growing, and this agreement shows how both countries are willing to adapt to make things work. Prime Minister Oli’s frequent visits to China—more than to India—highlight Nepal’s desire to balance its foreign policy.

For Nepal, this is a chance to use its strategic location to its advantage. Just like in ancient times when it thrived as a trading hub, Nepal can now look forward to a future of greater connectivity and opportunity.

The Nepal-China BRI deal is more than just an agreement—it’s a step toward a new chapter for Nepal. By striking a balance between grants and loans, and navigating tricky geopolitics, Nepal is taking a bold move toward modernization. While challenges remain, this partnership could unlock new possibilities for the Himalayan nation, making it a key player in the region’s future.

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