The situation in Syria just took a huge turn. Anti-regime rebels have launched a fast and unexpected push south, shaking the entire region. This sudden move has placed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power in serious jeopardy.
The rebels pushing to overthrow Assad still have a long way to go, but they’ve already made significant progress, especially in Syria’s northwestern regions. This is a huge problem for one of Assad’s most important allies—Russia. Even though Assad’s rule might not end immediately, if rebels capture the coastal areas where Russia’s prized military bases are located, Moscow could suffer a devastating blow.
The Importance of Russia’s Bases
Russia has two major military bases in Syria: the Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia and a huge naval base in the port of Tartus. These bases were given to Russia in 2017 when the country signed a 49-year lease, securing Moscow’s control over the Mediterranean for years to come. With these bases, Russia has been able to project power into the Middle East, Africa, and even against NATO countries along the Mediterranean.
These bases are crucial to Russia’s military operations, including its invasion of Ukraine, as well as operations in the Middle East. They serve as staging grounds for Russian aircraft and naval forces, giving them the ability to control vast areas of air and sea.
Rebels Getting Close to Key Bases
The rebels are now advancing fast, and some reports suggest they are within 20 miles of the Khmeimim Air Base. While this distance seems like a buffer, the situation is rapidly changing. The rebels are pushing forward with surprising speed, and even though Russian forces have been protecting the base for years, things are different now.
Russia is stretched thin due to its ongoing war in Ukraine. Its military presence in Syria is not as strong as it once was, and that means there might not be enough resources to defend these key bases effectively.
The Khmeimim Air Base has been heavily fortified, with long runways, advanced anti-aircraft systems, and even the possibility of a hidden S-400 missile battery that could target enemy aircraft from miles away. But without enough support, will it hold?
Tartus and the Threat to Russia’s Naval Power
The naval base in Tartus is a bit more secure—for now. It’s about 30 miles from the front lines, which provides a little more distance from the fighting. But even this base is under threat. Some reports say that Russia might have pulled its ships from the Tartus port to avoid them getting caught up in the fighting. But recent naval exercises, including missile launches, suggest that Russia isn’t giving up on Tartus just yet.
Still, Tartus is vulnerable to attacks, especially with rebel forces getting their hands on more heavy weaponry, including rocket launchers that can reach these facilities. Drones are also a huge concern, as they have been used to target military installations across Syria. If the rebels manage to take control of Tartus or Khmeimim, Russia’s influence in the region could be crippled.
Limited Help from Iran and Hezbollah
Iran and its proxy group, Hezbollah, have been helping Assad by providing troops and weapons, but their resources are limited. Hezbollah has been weakened by months of fighting against Israel, and Iran is also dealing with its own set of problems, including the war in Yemen and other regional conflicts. This means they might not be able to help Assad as much as they did in the past.
With both Russia and Iran stretched thin, Assad’s position is growing more precarious. The rebels are gaining ground, and the longer this goes on, the more pressure Russia and Iran will face to help Assad hold on.
What’s Next?
It’s still unclear whether the rebels will be able to overthrow Assad completely. There are internal threats to Assad’s regime, but for now, he’s holding on. However, if the rebel offensive continues to gain momentum and reaches closer to Russia’s military bases, Moscow will have some tough decisions to make. The Kremlin will have to figure out how to respond to this growing threat and whether it has enough forces left to protect its strategic interests in Syria.
One thing is certain: The situation in Syria is changing quickly, and the balance of power in the region is shifting. Will Assad’s regime survive, or will the rebels, with the support of the people and the backing of other countries, finally push him out? And more importantly for Russia, what will happen if their prized Mediterranean bases are lost? Only time will tell.
