The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency is stirring up big questions, especially about the future of the Middle East. His first term showed us a bold, unconventional approach to foreign policy, and many wonder what his second term will mean for the region. Will it lead to more conflict, or will it bring stability?
Trump’s First Term in Review
When Trump was president before, his policies focused heavily on “America First”—putting U.S. interests above all else. This included cutting down on immigration, boosting the economy, and withdrawing from international agreements that didn’t align with U.S. goals. On the world stage, Trump challenged old alliances, often questioning the value of NATO and other global organizations.
In the Middle East, Trump’s time in office was marked by strong support for Israel and hardline tactics against Iran. He moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel, and brokered peace agreements between Israel and some Arab nations, like the UAE and Bahrain. He also pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal, tightening sanctions on Iran.
Middle Eastern Reactions to Trump’s Return
Many Middle Eastern leaders are excited about Trump coming back. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is particularly happy, seeing Trump’s support as crucial for Israel’s security, especially in dealing with Iran and the ongoing issues with Gaza and Lebanon.
Other leaders, like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, are also hopeful that Trump’s return means more cooperation. They were pleased with his “America First” approach because it prioritized their countries’ security and economic interests without focusing too much on issues like human rights.
However, not everyone is thrilled. Iran, which had hoped for a friendlier U.S. administration under Joe Biden, sees Trump’s return as a step backward. Trump’s tough stance on Iran, especially his decision to leave the nuclear deal and impose harsh sanctions, has left the country in a tough spot. Iran knows that with Trump back in power, it will likely face more pressure and isolation.
Trump’s Potential Middle East Strategy
If Trump returns to the White House, we can expect more of the same tough policies, especially when it comes to Iran. He’s likely to keep up sanctions to try to weaken Iran’s economy and military influence in the region. He’ll probably continue to support Israel in its efforts to defend itself, especially against Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. This could mean more military aid for Israel and possibly more confrontations with Iran.
Trump will also likely keep his close ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These countries see Trump as an ally who helped strengthen their defense and security against Iran, without pushing them on issues like women’s rights or democracy.
But Trump’s approach won’t make everyone happy. In Qatar, for instance, Trump’s earlier support for Saudi Arabia and the UAE during their diplomatic row with Qatar makes many there nervous about his return. They fear another round of isolation and pressure if Trump sides again with the Gulf States.
What Does This Mean for the Region?
With Trump back in power, we might see more military confrontations, especially between Israel and Iran. The two countries are already bitter enemies, and with Trump supporting Israel, tensions could escalate. On the other hand, Trump’s focus on economic and security partnerships might help stabilize the region in some areas.
Trump’s policies could lead to more deals like the Abraham Accords, where Arab countries normalize relations with Israel, as they look to counter Iran together. But this also means that Iran might react more aggressively, potentially causing more instability in countries like Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.
In countries like Turkey, Trump’s return is a bit more complicated. While President Erdogan has a good relationship with Trump, there are still unresolved issues, especially over U.S. support for Kurdish forces in Syria, which Turkey sees as a threat.
Will Trump Bring Peace or War?
Trump’s approach to the Middle East in a second term could bring both opportunities and risks. His strong relationships with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE could strengthen U.S. influence in the region and help curb Iran’s power. However, this could also lead to more regional conflicts, as Iran and its allies may retaliate against increased U.S. and Israeli support.
Ultimately, Trump’s Middle East strategy will likely focus on economic and security interests, but it could also spark more tensions, especially with Iran. If he can balance alliances and avoid direct confrontations, his return might lead to more stability, but there’s a real risk of more violence as well.
