After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western nations imposed harsh restrictions on Russian oil imports. This has led to a significant shift in global trade, with countries like China, India, and Turkey increasing their oil imports from Russia.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, there were harsh prohibitions or limitations on Russian oil imports from the West. Other countries, such as China, India, and Turkey, chose to strengthen their trading relations with the nation in the meantime.
The last visual representation of a three-part series on the future of trade is this one from the Hinrich Foundation. Through graphic Capitalist, Julia Wendling gives a graphic explanation of the widening gap between the nations that are rejecting Russian oil and those that are utilizing the surplus supply.
Which Countries Have Decreased or Banned Russian Oil Imports?
The IEA’s February 2024 Oil Market Report, which covers Russian oil shipments from 2021 to 2023, provides the data used in this research.
The United States and the United Kingdom also implemented total bans on Russian crude after the invasion. By late 2022, imports had decreased to zero from 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021.
Comparably, the EU, which has traditionally relied more on Russian oil, saw a nearly 80% decrease in imports, from 3.3 million barrels per day in 2021 to 600,000 barrels per day in 2023.
The OECD Asia-Pacific region, which comprises South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, similarly reduced its imports of Russian oil.
Which Countries Have Increased Imports of Russian Oil?
Countries and areas that opted not to support Western sanctions saw a buying opportunity when demand for Russian crude from the West declined.
India had the biggest growth in its oil imports from Russia between 2021 and 2023, going from 100,000 bpd to 1.9 million bpd.
Large increases were also observed for China, the largest net importer. During this period, the nation increased its imports of Russian oil by more than 40%. Russia’s oil imports into Turkey rose by an additional 500,000 barrels per day.
There were modest increases in imports into several other regions, including Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa.
Shifting Trade Dependencies
The fluctuations of the world crude market reflect larger patterns in Russia’s commercial ties. Russia is depending more and more on China economically, and less and less on the West.
Russia’s growing reliance on China (+7.1%) caused the biggest upward movement in UNCTAD’s estimations of the country’s dependence on bilateral trade from 2022 to 2023.
In actuality, China gave Russia a lifeline following the invasion of Ukraine. According to the Atlantic Council, China’s exports to Russia have surged by 121% since 2021, but only by 29% to the rest of the globe during the same time frame.
By comparison, Russia showed a significant decline in its dependency on the EU (-5.3%). The U.S. and South Korea have moved to further separate themselves from China as geopolitical tensions rise.
Geopolitical conflicts have the potential to have a big impact on trade, as the Russian oil market demonstrates. Even though Russia continued to export crude oil during the war, this required a change in its principal trading partners.
Recently, GreatGameIndia reported that Reuters has stated that Indian company Reliance Industries will buy Russian oil in roubles and is also able to acquire the oil at a discount.
