Israeli officials have hinted at using nuclear weapons against Gaza amidst the ongoing crisis. Concurrently, Iran has attacked an Israeli intelligence site and is nearing nuclear weapon capability, with fortified defenses. A recent war game revealed that military strikes, including nuclear ones, between Israel and Iran are more possible than previously thought, challenging long-held assumptions. This simulation, involving various experts, ended with Israel launching nuclear strikes against Iran, highlighting the urgent need for strategies to prevent such conflicts and fostering regional cooperation to reduce nuclear risks.

An Unprecedented Situation

The Gaza crisis has escalated to a new level. For the first time, elected Israeli officials have openly talked about Israel’s nuclear weapons and how they might be used against Gaza. This is a significant and alarming development.

Rising Tensions with Iran

Iran recently attacked an Israeli intelligence outpost in Iraq. It’s also close to making several nuclear weapons and has strengthened its military against potential first strikes. Iran and its allies now have powerful missiles that can reach important Israeli targets.

Challenging Assumptions

For a long time, experts believed Israel’s nuclear weapons were only for deterrence and that Iran wouldn’t directly attack Israel. However, recent events challenge these beliefs, suggesting that a military conflict, including the use of nuclear weapons, is possible between Israel and Iran.

The War Game

In late 2023, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center organized a war game to explore these scenarios. Participants included government officials, military personnel, and experts from various fields. The game consisted of three parts:

1. Initial Strike: Israeli teams planned a nuclear strike on Iran. The Israeli Prime Minister chose one plan, and the military executed it.
2. Response: Different teams representing Israel, friendly Arab nations, the US, and its allies responded to the initial strike. Control teams played Iran, Russia, and China, simulating their reactions.
3. Debrief: Participants discussed their insights and the implications of the game’s events.

Scenario Breakdown

The game is set in 2027. Israeli intelligence reports that Iran is preparing nuclear warheads for its missiles. Israel asks the US to join a military strike on Iran, but the US declines and offers advanced missiles instead. Israel uses these missiles to attack Iranian nuclear and missile sites. Iran’s allies respond with devastating missile attacks on Israel, leading to significant casualties.

Israel retaliates with aerial strikes on enemy strongholds, causing over 2,000 Arab deaths. Iran then attacks key Israeli defense sites, killing more civilians, and announces its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signaling its readiness to use nuclear weapons.

The Decision to Use Nuclear Weapons

Israeli intelligence reveals that their previous attacks didn’t stop Iran’s nuclear progress. The US advises Israel to cease attacks to avoid nuclear war. Feeling isolated, Israel decides to use nuclear weapons. After a non-lethal nuclear demonstration in Iran and conventional strikes, Israel hopes to deter further conflict.

However, Iran continues its aggression, prompting Israel to launch a precision nuclear strike on 25 military targets. In retaliation, Iran nukes an Israeli airbase with American personnel present. The game ends here, leaving many questions unanswered about the future of such conflicts.

Key Takeaways

1. Strategic Uncertainty: The game highlights the complexities and uncertainties of a nuclear conflict between Israel and Iran.
2. Deterrence and Proportionality: It challenges the idea that nuclear deterrence can prevent conflict and raises questions about the proportionality of military responses.
3. Diplomatic Solutions: There is a need for more simulations and discussions involving regional players to develop strategies to avoid nuclear war.
4. Regional Integration: Strengthening Israel’s ties with its neighbors through economic and security collaborations could reduce its reliance on nuclear options.

Moving Forward

The game suggests that Israel’s isolation could drive it to use nuclear weapons. Building stronger regional alliances and involving Israel in broader diplomatic efforts could help prevent this. The US and other powers need to openly discuss the risks and work towards regional denuclearization.

Conclusion

This war game underscores the importance of preparing for potential nuclear conflicts and finding ways to prevent them through diplomatic and strategic measures. The involvement of regional players and open discussions about nuclear risks are crucial steps toward a safer future.