In recent developments, high-ranking police officer IK Muivah, Inspector General of Police (Operations) in Manipur, revealed that forensic experts are investigating a possible foreign hand in the use of advanced drones and long-range rockets by Kuki militants. These advanced weapons have sparked fresh concerns as they’re new to the conflict between the Kuki-Zo tribes and the majority Meitei in Manipur, a northeastern Indian state already shaken by ethnic violence.
The conflict, which has claimed over 200 lives and displaced more than 60,000 people since May 2023, escalated further with a series of drone and rocket attacks in early September. These attacks targeted two areas, Koutruk and Senjam Chirang, prompting authorities to form a high-level committee involving the Indian Army, police, and Assam Rifles to investigate the growing threat posed by this new weaponry.
Retired Colonel RSN Singh, a former officer with India’s spy agency, R&AW (Research and Analysis Wing), described the use of drones and long-range rockets in Manipur as an “unprecedented” development. While such advanced weaponry has been common in Myanmar since 2021, particularly among ethnic armed groups fighting the military regime there, this is the first time these systems have surfaced in India. Singh explained that it was likely only a matter of time before these weapons crossed borders, given the geographic and cultural connections between ethnic groups in both countries. Last November, similar drones were used in a large attack on trucks transporting goods from China to Myanmar, raising concerns about how easily such weaponry could spread.
The big question now is whether foreign powers, especially the United States, are involved. Some believe that the US may be indirectly supporting Myanmar’s ethnic rebel groups, including Christian organizations, as part of a larger strategy to undermine China’s growing influence in the region. The US recently passed the BURMA Act, which promises “non-lethal assistance” to opposition groups in Myanmar. This has raised suspicions in India that American backing of Myanmar’s ethnic groups, particularly Christian tribes, may be spilling over into the Kuki militants’ actions in Manipur.
Former Indian intelligence officers, including Colonel Singh, have pointed to a broader plan that involves creating a “Christian state” comprising parts of Bangladesh, Myanmar, and potentially even Manipur and Mizoram in India. Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, had earlier hinted at such a plot, although she didn’t directly name India. Some Indian observers now believe that the US and other Western players could be trying to destabilize the region as part of their larger geopolitical chess game against China.
Singh also suggested that American non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and church groups, particularly the Baptist Church, could be playing a significant role in the conflict. The Baptist Church has a long history of involvement in the region, especially among the Christian tribes in Myanmar and parts of India. Singh claimed that the US has been using these missionary activities as part of a deeper strategy to influence tribal areas along the India-Myanmar border.
Meanwhile, the drug trade along this border adds another layer of complexity. Many areas where these insurgent groups operate are known hotspots for drug trafficking, and there’s a long-standing suspicion that revenue from these illegal activities fuels ethnic tensions and violence. This, Singh argued, is another reason why the conflict in Manipur has intensified in recent months.
India is now trying to take control of the situation. Earlier this year, Home Minister Amit Shah announced plans to build a fence along the 1,643-kilometer-long border with Myanmar to prevent the free movement of insurgents and illegal goods. However, with foreign players allegedly involved and advanced weapons being used, the conflict seems far from over.
What makes the situation in Manipur even more alarming is how it fits into the larger power struggle between the US and China. China has significant economic interests in Myanmar, especially with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which includes plans for a deep-water port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. However, these projects have faced delays due to conflicts like the Rohingya refugee crisis. According to Singh, the US wants to keep these issues alive to block China’s access to the Bay of Bengal.
The use of armed drones and long-range rockets in Manipur might seem like a local issue, but it is increasingly being viewed as part of a global geopolitical battle involving China, the US, and other players. As the investigation into these drone attacks continues, all eyes are on who may be pulling the strings behind the scenes and what this could mean for the future of the region.
