This summer, something big and unexpected happened in Africa. South Sudan’s parliament made a bold move by officially approving the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), also known as the Entebbe Agreement. This agreement, signed over 14 years ago, challenges the long-standing water rights of Egypt and Sudan, two countries that have relied heavily on the Nile for their survival.

The Entebbe Agreement was first signed in 2010 by several East African countries: Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Burundi. South Sudan joined in 2012. But the agreement needed the approval of at least six countries’ parliaments to truly go into effect. With South Sudan’s recent ratification, the magic number was reached, and this long-awaited agreement finally became official.

On October 13, Ethiopia proudly announced that the agreement was now in force, calling it a “historic milestone.” The Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, celebrated the moment, saying it marked a new era of cooperation between the countries that share the Nile.

Why the Entebbe Agreement Matters

This agreement changes everything. For many decades, Egypt and Sudan have controlled most of the Nile’s water, thanks to colonial-era deals from the 1920s and 1950s. These agreements gave Egypt 55.5 billion cubic meters of water each year and Sudan 18.5 billion cubic meters, without much consideration for the other countries in the Nile Basin. But those deals were made long ago when many African nations were still colonies. Now, these countries want a fairer share of the water.

The Entebbe Agreement breaks away from these old colonial rules. It aims to create a more balanced approach to sharing the Nile’s waters, ensuring that all 12 countries in the Nile Basin – which include Burundi, Egypt, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, and others – have a say in how the water is used. It’s especially significant because about 40% of Africa’s population lives in these countries, and the Nile is essential for agriculture, drinking water, and even electricity.

Why Egypt Is Worried

The Nile is everything to Egypt. Around 95% of Egypt’s population lives near the river, and nearly all of the country’s water comes from it. Famous cities like Cairo and Alexandria were built on its banks, and Egypt’s economy depends heavily on the Nile’s resources.

But Egypt’s water needs are huge. Right now, the country uses around 80 billion cubic meters of water each year but faces a shortage of 20 billion cubic meters. So, when other countries upstream, like Ethiopia, start using more water, it raises alarm bells for Egypt.

To make matters worse for Egypt, about 85% of the Nile’s water originates in the Ethiopian highlands. Yet, until recently, Ethiopia had very little control over how much of that water it could use. The Entebbe Agreement and Ethiopia’s ambitious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) are changing that balance of power, and Egypt isn’t happy about it.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A Symbol of Change

The GERD is Ethiopia’s answer to its energy needs. Ethiopia is the second-most populous country in Africa, and nearly half of its 120 million people don’t have access to electricity. The dam, which is still under construction, could change that by generating enough electricity to power millions of homes. Since 2022, the dam has already produced 1,550 megawatts, and when completed, it could generate over 5,000 megawatts.

But Egypt views this dam as a threat. The Nile has been its lifeline for centuries, and any major changes to how the water flows could have severe consequences. Egypt has long had the power to block any upstream projects it didn’t like, thanks to the colonial-era agreements. Now, Ethiopia is challenging that control.

Tensions have been rising between Egypt and Ethiopia for years over this issue. In September 2023, Ethiopia announced the completion of the fourth filling of the dam’s reservoir, something Egypt called a violation of international law. With the Entebbe Agreement now in force, Ethiopia and other upstream countries have more legal backing for their water use, further intensifying the situation.

Colonial Agreements and the Nyerere Principle

The Nile dispute isn’t just about water – it’s also about history. During the colonial era, powers like Britain, France, and Italy made agreements that gave Egypt and Sudan control over most of the Nile’s water. These deals didn’t include the other Nile Basin countries, which were still colonies at the time.

After gaining independence, these countries rejected the old agreements. Tanzania’s first president, Julius Nyerere, was particularly vocal about this, stating that his country would not follow deals made by colonial rulers. This idea became known as the “Nyerere Principle” and was embraced by other upstream countries like Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi. The Entebbe Agreement reflects this principle, promoting a “fair use” of the Nile’s resources for all countries involved.

On the other hand, Egypt has stuck to the idea that countries should respect colonial-era agreements to avoid conflict. This difference in perspective is at the heart of the dispute.

What Happens Next?

With the Entebbe Agreement now officially in force, a new era of cooperation – or conflict – could unfold in the Nile Basin. Uganda is set to host a major summit later this year to celebrate the agreement and the creation of a Nile Basin Commission, which will oversee how the water is shared among the countries.

However, the road ahead won’t be easy. The long-standing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile and the GERD are far from resolved. Egypt, facing a water shortage, isn’t likely to give up its historic control over the river without a fight.

At the same time, Ethiopia, which needs the Nile to power its growing population, shows no signs of backing down. This standoff could escalate, not just between Egypt and Ethiopia, but across the entire region.

The future of the Nile – and the millions of people who depend on it – is at a crossroads. Will this new agreement bring peace and cooperation, or will it spark new conflicts in Africa?