Donald Trump’s return to the White House is causing ripples of anxiety across global capitals. As he prepares to take office next month, countries are bracing for what could be a turbulent phase in international relations. During his first presidency, Trump’s unpredictable decisions, threats of tariffs, and trade wars left many U.S. allies uneasy. Nations like Japan, South Korea, and others in the Indo-Pacific region, which rely heavily on American security, were particularly nervous about their noncommittal stance toward alliances.
Unlike traditional American administrations, Trump’s foreign policy focused less on military strategy and more on economic interests. Trade deficits, rather than geopolitical balances of power, drove his decisions. But this approach also created internal challenges for Trump, with opposition from Congress, the Intelligence Community, and the Washington establishment.
As Trump gears up for his second term, it’s clear that trade will once again take center stage. He has already announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on China and 25% on Mexico and Canada. This “Fortress America” approach could trigger a chain reaction, potentially leading to a “Fortress Europe.” His administration’s policies will likely evaluate nations based on two factors: their trade relationships with the U.S. and their closeness to China.
India: An Ally in the Spotlight
For India, Trump’s return brings opportunities and challenges. On the bright side, Trump shares a personal rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and India’s strategic importance as a counterbalance to China works in its favor. Trump is expected to view India as a key ally in the “Asian Great Game” — a geopolitical chessboard centered on China’s rise.
However, India’s ties with Russia complicate the picture. Historically, India and Russia have shared a strong partnership, particularly in defense and energy. But as Trump focuses on countering China, he may pressure India to reduce its ties with Moscow. This could backfire. New Delhi values its independent foreign policy and has little interest in being forced to choose sides. Pressuring India could harm America’s credibility as a reliable partner in South Asia.
Russia: A Thorny Issue
Winding down the conflict in Ukraine will require Trump to cooperate with Russia. But Russia’s growing closeness to China is likely to irk his administration. During Trump’s first term, both Russia and China were labeled as rivals in America’s National Security Strategy. If Trump attempts to isolate China, he may need to make concessions to Russia — a balancing act that won’t be easy.
For India, maintaining its partnership with Russia while strengthening ties with the U.S. will require diplomatic finesse. Both India and Russia favor a multipolar world where no single country dominates, but neither has the power to achieve this vision alone. As the global order shifts, New Delhi and Moscow will need to work harder to keep their partnership relevant.
The American Dilemma
Trump’s second term comes at a time when America’s global influence is being questioned. Confidence in its military power is waning, transnational institutions are paralyzed, and the dominance of the dollar is being challenged. Meanwhile, China’s rise and the growing assertiveness of the Global South are reshaping the international system.
Domestically, Trump faces a polarized political landscape that could limit his ability to execute his foreign policy. Even within his administration, differing priorities among lawmakers, lobbyists, and think tanks could create obstacles.
One key issue will be the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which penalizes countries that engage with U.S. rivals like Russia. While Trump has criticized the act as flawed, he may struggle to overturn it. Historically, lifting sanctions has been a slow and politically challenging process. For example, sanctions imposed on the Soviet Union in the 1970s weren’t fully removed until decades later.
Trade and Technology
Trade is another area where Trump’s policies could strain relations with India. During his first term, he pushed India to reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. and imposed tariffs to press the point. On the flip side, defense cooperation between the two countries reached new heights. Initiatives like the Quad alliance (with Australia, Japan, and the U.S.) and agreements on high-tech military sales strengthened the partnership.
However, Trump’s restrictive immigration policies during his first term hurt India’s IT sector, which relies heavily on H-1B visas. Ironically, these restrictions encouraged U.S. tech companies to expand operations in India, boosting the local economy. Looking ahead, India hopes that Trump’s focus on China will overshadow other irritants in the relationship, such as trade disputes and human rights issues.
A Delicate Balance
The future of U.S.-India-Russia relations will hinge on how the three countries navigate complex issues like trade, energy, and security. Trump’s second term is likely to emphasize oil trade, with the U.S. pushing India to buy American crude instead of Russian oil. For New Delhi, the challenge will be to balance its relationships with both Washington and Moscow without alienating either.
Ultimately, Trump’s approach to India and Russia will test the limits of America’s influence in a rapidly changing world. Attempting to pressure India over its ties with Russia could backfire, damaging America’s reputation in South Asia and beyond. In a world where alliances are increasingly fluid, the ability to adapt will determine whether Trump’s foreign policy succeeds or falters.
